Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
859 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

Line of storms in southwest SD heading east this evening towards
our western cwa. Some warnings have been issued with this line. It
looks like they will weaken as they move into our western cwa.
Increased pops some for the rest of the evening and may have to
increase them a little more. Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

Conditions are setting up for a more active pattern across the area
over the next couple of days. The CWA is currently situated between
high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, with
southerly flow bringing in more moisture and warmer air. The low
to the west will become more southwest to northeast oriented on
Tuesday, with the associated warm front stretching across the
state through late Wednesday. With this boundary in the
area, will see precipitation chances increase by Tuesday
night, with best chances likely to occur Tuesday night across the
entire area, then Wednesday night across the east as a fairly
hefty cap builds over the west. A low level jet and stronger
instability look to focus across the west Tuesday night and more
to the east Wednesday night as well. Therefore, will keep a schc
pop going tonight into Tuesday, with an increase in pops through
the rest of the period.

Very warm temperatures expected the next few days, with highs in
the upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows in the 60s will be
common tonight, then look for upper 60s to lower 70s for lows
Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

The sfc low should be directly overhead at 12Z Thursday, and slowly
sink to our southeast by mid afternoon, making it to southern MN and
central IA by the end of the day. The result will be a return to
more normal high temperatures on Thursday.

The unsettled weather will not be completely gone though as the sfc
high will be slow to move overhead late Saturday into Sunday
morning. The 500MB trough over the western half of the nation
Thursday morning will only slowly shift eastward to the Northern and
Central Plains Friday. The back side of this trough will be oriented
east to west from the parent low across western Ontario to northern
ND-MT Saturday afternoon. This wave should cross our area Saturday
night into early Sunday. Behind that, a high amplitude 500MB ridge
will then build across the central portions of the nation Sunday
afternoon through at least Monday. The pressure gradient will
increase Monday, in advance of the next low over eastern MT-WY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

Vfr conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Tuesday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Mohr

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
332 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-090845-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
332 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 /232 AM MDT MON AUG 8 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SERR