Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
637 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

Storms are having a difficult time initiating and holding together
this evening. That said, the environment remains very favorable
for development and intensification, especially as the cold front
progresses east. Radar trends show a line of storms in western SD
heading for south central SD in an hour or two if they can
maintain themselves. Adjusted pops based on latest guidance and
radar trends. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

Watching progression of cold front this afternoon as it moves east
across the western Dakotas. Plenty of moisture and instability ahead
of the front and also noting the approach of a potent upper level
trough. Stage is set for development of strong to severe
thunderstorms over the next couple hours across the central Dakotas,
with activity moving east into the evening hours.

On Thursday, much drier air will be moving in behind the departing
cold front. Dewpoints will drop back into the 50s with high
temperatures cooling down into the low to mid 80s. Breezy northwest
winds can also be expected.

High pressure settles into the region Thursday night and remains in
control through the day Friday. This will bring lighter winds and
dry conditions. Low temperatures early Friday morning are forecast
to bottom out in the low to mid 50s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

Surface high pressure will be in place over the region at the
start of the long term period, as the area is between a couple
long wave troughs (over eastern Canada and the Pacific
Northwest). Between those troughs, an upper ridge will stretch
from the Northern Plains to the lee of the Canadian Rockies. That
ridge will remain in place through the weekend and possibly into
Monday, as the upper trough in the Pacific Northwest remains
nearly stationary. That should lead to a generally dry weekend as
the surface high departs to the east. There are a few indications
of a weak wave sliding across the area on Sunday, but the
potential doesn't appear to be strong enough to include any
slight chance PoPs at this time (especially with better moisture
to the south of the area).

For the first half of next week, the upper trough will slowly
shift east into the Northern Rockies and eventually the Northern
Plains by mid to late week. Therefore, would expect some
scattered thunderstorm potential (slight/chance PoPs) as weak
waves eject out ahead of the trough and through the area.

Finally for temperatures, expect highs to be at or slightly below
normal for the weekend before warmer air begins to move over the
area early next week out in front of the upper trough. That will
trend highs up into the upper 80s and lower 90s by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period except in or near
stronger thunderstorms. A cold front will sweep through the region
tonight bringing the chance for strong to severe storms. At this
time, KPIR appears to be in line for TS by about 2z. Timing and
areal extent of other storm development is still questionable.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
956 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-041200-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-EDMUNDS-DAY-
FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
956 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY 8 PM CDT FOR COUNTIES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>037-045-048-051-041200-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-WALWORTH-DEWEY-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-
HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
956 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 /856 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
WITH WEST RIVER COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. IF OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY
OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY 5 PM CDT FOR COUNTIES WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER.

SRF