Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
627 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect this evening,
though so far the activity has been confined to North Dakota. The
expectation is that the potential for storms developing across
eastern SD will increase around or just after sunset. Made a few
adjustments to pops in the meantime. Also increased cloud cover
from Watertown south as an area of stratus is advecting north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 413 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

Latest sat pics and 88D data indicate storms forming over sc North
Dakota currently.  This is where the SPC meso page indicates the
best overlay of supportive convective parameters with decent deep
layer/ll shear as well as plenty of ml cape.  Expect this area of
storms to gradually grow into some sort of MCS, and then potentially
move southeast over ne South Dakota this evening. However,
confidence in the exact evolution of convection this evening is not
particularly high given varying CAM solutions. Nonetheless there
will be a threat for hail/wind and perhaps even a brief tornado if
any storm can get anchored on the outflow boundary/warm front headed
toward southern ND to the east of the north central SD sfc low.

The rest of the short range looks mostly dry until late Wednesday as
another front moves across the region.  The models continue to
indicate a fairly decent EML over top that front and thus convection
may be limited until Wednesday night when some cooling aloft spreads
across the forecast area as strong trof heads across southern
Canada.  Temperatures overall should be near to above normal through
Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are expected later in the week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

Cold front will be moving out of the area on Thursday and into MN.
Any lingering precip over the eastern CWA Thursday morning should be
out of the area by afternoon. Cooler and drier air will be moving in
on Thursday. After highs in the 90s for many areas on Wednesday,
Thursday will drop back down into the low to mid 80s for most areas.
Dewpoints will also drop down into the 50s which will feel
comfortable. Surface high pressure will move in Thursday night and
stick around through the day Friday. This will bring dry conditions,
light winds, and pleasant temperatures. The rest of the period sees
a small increase in precip chances as models suggest weak embedded
waves within mid level flow will cross the region. Did not stray too
far from SuperBlend pops at this time based on timing and
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

An area of MVFR stratus is pushing up into KATY this evening and
will likely linger then fall to IFR toward morning. Otherwise all
sites are VFR. Thunderstorm activity has been confined to ND so
far this evening, but there is starting to be some development
just west of KABR on some outflow boundaries and also with the
front near Corson county which may affect KMBG.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
352 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-021100-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
352 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 /252 AM MDT MON AUG 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ANY REPORTS OF HAIL OR STRONG WINDS IS ENCOURAGED. REPORTS CAN BE
SENT THROUGH OUR WEBPAGE...FACEBOOK...AND TWITTER OR BE CALLING
THE ABERDEEN NWS OFFICE.

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
831 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

SDZ005-006-020200-
MCPHERSON SD-BROWN SD-
831 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN MCPHERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 831 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ELM LAKE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELLENDALE...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREDERICK AND ELM LAKE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4580 9834 4583 9873 4594 9876 4594 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 273DEG 28KT 4588 9865

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
854 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             8 WNW FREDERICK         45.86N 98.66W
08/01/2016  E0.88 INCH       BROWN              SD   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

RV