Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Aberdeen, SD

186 
WWUS53 KABR 010752
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
252 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

SDC075-010815-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-160801T0815Z/
JONES SD-
252 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR JONES COUNTY...

AT 251 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DRAPER...OR 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF MURDO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DRAPER AROUND 255 AM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4373 10051 4374 10055 4377 10058 4374 10062
      4375 10065 4372 10067 4373 10079 4376 10081
      4378 10088 4380 10088 4379 10090 4383 10093
      4381 10095 4385 10099 4385 10104 4416 10097
      4415 10038 4373 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0751Z 273DEG 29KT 4399 10061 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOHR

242 
WWUS53 KABR 010801
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
301 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

SDC075-010815-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-160801T0815Z/
JONES SD-
301 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR JONES COUNTY...

AT 301 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DRAPER...OR 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF MURDO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF JONES
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4373 10051 4374 10055 4377 10058 4374 10062
      4375 10065 4372 10067 4373 10079 4376 10081
      4378 10088 4380 10088 4379 10090 4383 10093
      4381 10095 4383 10096 4384 10097 4385 10099
      4385 10102 4416 10092 4415 10038 4373 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 274DEG 28KT 4398 10051 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

MOHR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1244 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

Still relatively quiet weather this evening with all of the
frontal action across the far western Dakotas. By late evening
these storms are expected to gradually push into the central
Dakotas, though most of the thunderstorm activity will likely
remain over North Dakota tonight. Adjusted pops to account for
slower motion of storms this evening. Otherwise, forecast remains
on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

Surface trough located along the Dakotas border with MT and WY is
the focus for thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Currently seeing an increasing Cu field along this trough with some
showers and storms going up as well. Best deep layer shear is
further north and expect the highest areal coverage of storms to be
across ND. Although, still expect some degree of storms to affect
western into central SD through the evening hours. Given the amount
of instability and some shear to work with, any storm could become
strong to severe. Better threat over our CWA seems to be north
central SD, given the southern extent of deep layer shear.

Focus then shifts to Monday, with the surface low moving southeast
over SD. Surface boundary associated with the low moves through the
CWA during the afternoon/evening, with good convergence along the
front. With shear and instability around once again, looking at a
pretty good chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Surface high pressure moves into the region on Tuesday, with drier
and more stable conditions settling in. Temperatures will remain on
the warm/hot side though, with highs staying in the 80s and 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

The long term starts off with a s/w ridge over the region early
Wednesday. However, a decent looking system passing through the
Northern Rockies will force a frontal boundary east across the
region late Wednesday and Wednesday night. An EML will accompany the
front and thus not completely sure about shower/tstorm coverage. But
for now will maintain relatively high pops given model suggested
QPF. After the front passes it should again turn dry until next
weekend.  Temperatures, overall, should average out right around
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Some MVFR or
possibly IFR cigs will be possible early Monday morning across
the east. The best chance will be at ATY, although ABR may also
experience some of the lower ceilings surging in on the moist
southeast winds. The current thunderstorm activity over and
southwest of MBG may impact PIR after 07Z. Have added VCTS, and
will increase winds/TS potential as needed.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...KF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
420 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-011200-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
420 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 /320 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
855 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

SDZ003-015-010400-
CORSON SD-DEWEY SD-
855 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEWEY AND CORSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 PM MDT...

AT 855 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF BULLHEAD...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MCLAUGHLIN...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE BUTTE...MCLAUGHLIN...LANTRY...TIMBER LAKE...WAKPALA...
MCINTOSH...ISABEL...MORRISTOWN...FIRESTEEL...WATAUGA...
SOUTH EAGLE BUTTE...THUNDER HAWK...KLEIN RANCH...WALKER...PARADE...
SHAMBO RANCH...GLENCROSS...GREEN GRASS...
BULLHEAD AND LITTLE MOREAU REC AREA.

LAT...LON 4594 10200 4594 10053 4568 10044 4552 10051
      4519 10042 4496 10101 4496 10114 4499 10114
      4499 10150 4547 10147 4547 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 268DEG 45KT 4567 10113

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1001 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

SDZ003-015-010500-
CORSON SD-DEWEY SD-
1001 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEWEY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CORSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM MDT...

AT 1001 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LITTLE MOREAU REC AREA...OR 22 MILES NORTH OF EAGLE
BUTTE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TIMBER LAKE...SPRING LAKE...WHITE HORSE...GLENCROSS AND LITTLE MOREAU
REC AREA.

LAT...LON 4525 10126 4539 10128 4563 10088 4525 10087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 256DEG 12KT 4533 10115

WISE