Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Visible satellite imagery showing some towering Cu developing over
north central SD. This is within weak to moderate instability and 30
to 40 knots of deep layer shear. Although, mid level lapse rates are
less than impressive. Nonetheless, could see an uptick in showers
and storms over the next few hours across this region, which is what
a handful of CAM solutions are showing. Overnight, low level jet
strengthens, although it is not overly impressive. Plume of elevated
instability spread across the region and could be looking at some
scattered convection overnight pushing into the eastern CWA.

On Sunday, dewpoints will begin to increase as southerly winds
become stronger. Atmosphere will become more unstable, especially
over the central Dakotas. Mid-level lapse rates steepen as well,
although overall forcing aloft is rather weak as best large-scale
forcing is north of the area. Still, expect there will be some
degree of showers and storms by Sunday afternoon and evening across
at least the western CWA.

Monday into Monday night, surface trough will move southeast across
the CWA and be a focus for additional thunderstorm chances through
the day. Areal coverage though still a big question. Models seem to
be hitting northeast SD and west central MN the hardest but will
have to see how this all plays out.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

The beginning of the long term should feature a s/w ridge building
across the forecast area. However, that will be short-lived as a
decent mid level trof over the Pacific Northwest ejects east across
the Northern Plains during the mid week time period. The models are
fairly consistent and agreeable on this prognostication. A hot a
likely capped EML should spread across the region a head of that
trof.  But, as the front approaches Wednesday night, mid level
heights/temps should fall allowing for a good chc of showers/storms
at that time.  Otherwise the majority of the long term should be
dry. Temperatures will favor above normal until the front passes
Wednesday night.  Behind the front, a cooler airmass will spread
across the forecast area with temperatures trending to near or
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the valid taf period at all
terminals. Isolated/Sct storms are possible through this evening
and overnight, with the highest probabilities currently being
around KMBG where Thunder is mentioned early in the TAF valid
period.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Dorn

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-311100-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
322 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 /222 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

SDZ003-004-009-015-310030-
CORSON SD-CAMPBELL SD-DEWEY SD-WALWORTH SD-
634 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DEWEY...SOUTHWESTERN
CAMPBELL...SOUTHEASTERN CORSON AND NORTHWESTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES
UNTIL 730 PM CDT/630 PM MDT/...

AT 633 PM CDT/533 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEASTERN LAKE OAHE...OR OVER MOBRIDGE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOBRIDGE...GLENHAM...NEW EVERETS RESORT...INDIAN CREEK REC AREA...
REVHEIM BAY REC AREA...
INDIAN MEMORIAL REC AREA AND GRAND RIVER CASINO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4554 10052 4569 10045 4569 9992 4543 10013
      4535 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 305DEG 15KT 4558 10044

DORN