Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1144 AM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Low CIGS slowly breaking up this midday with mostly VFR conditions
expected at terminal sites this afternoon and evening. Could be
brief MVFR CIGS in the stronger storms. Another round of
SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop this afternoon, mainly after
20Z. Most impacts potential will be at KLVS, KSAF, KROW, KTCC,
KABQ and KAEG, generally in order from more to less likely. Least
likely site is KGUP. Activity will continue well into the night
tonight across the east, but diminishing before midnight across
most of the west. At this point continuing with KLVS NIL TAF until
ASOS data becomes available once again. Thursday will be similar
to today. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT WED SEP 14 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A pesky upper level trough will remain over the intermountain west
through the end of the week. Moisture levels will remain unusually
high throughout the atmosphere over central and eastern areas and
fuel scattered to sometimes numerous thunderstorms. The stronger
storms containing heavy rain and even the potential of several
weather favoring today and this evening will be found east of the
central mountains. The trough is expected to form a cut off low to
the west of the state during the weekend and eventually usher
additional moisture into the forecast area by early next week.
Lots of uncertainty for the weekend into early next week due to
the low placement but western areas look to be drier compared to
eastern areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
JUST MADE SOME LIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE CLOSED LOW LOCATION OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE FAVORED AREAS FOR STRONGER STORMS AND A LARGER RAIN
FOOTPRINT WOULD BE FOUND ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS. QUESTION MARK REMAINS ON HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHES. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DISCREPANCY ON THAT IMPACT
ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS OVERALL LOOK TO BE DRIER. SPC SHOWS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. BELIEVE THERE WILL
BE PLENTY ENOUGH SHEAR AND BUOYANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT THE VERY
MINIMUM ISOLATED SEVERE. ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
ENHANCE STRONGER STORMS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

A PORTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO GET CUT OFF
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD. LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL BE TANTAMOUNT IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH RAINFALL...DURATION AND WHERE. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE BIT AT ODDS WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE. A LITTLE MORE
INCLINED TO BELIEVE IN THE GFS AT THIS TIME. ECMWF EVENTUALLY
DRAGS A TROPICAL LOW UP THE BAJA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE GFS DOES
NOT.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rich moisture continues to hold firm across nearly all of the east
half of NM and, for the most part, this will hold true through at
least the start of next week. This means daily rounds of showers
and thunderstorms there along with the potential of some locally
heavy rainfall and even a few instances of very strong winds and
large hail. From the time of this writing the severe potential
looks to be most pronounced from roughly mid aftn until midnight
today through Friday or Saturday. The interface area between the
rich deep moisture across the east and much drier air farther west
will, today and Thursday at least, will be found from somewhere
across the northern mtns on southward in the general vicinity of
the Rio Grande Valley. This interface area will be a region where
at least a few showers and storms will develop mainly in the aftn
through mid eve hours and even a few of these could be rather
strong, but will have smaller wetting footprints than farther east.
From near the Continental Divide westward moisture will be limited
enough to keep any storms few in number and at least some of those
may well be dry. From Thu to at least Sat this area may not even
see any significant activity or at least no wetting rainfall, with
the possible exception of the Gila region.

Another back door front looks likely to push south and to some
degree west Fri and eventually encompassing most of the ne half to
two thirds of the state by that night or Sat. The front may wash
out sooner though and a general e to se low lvl flow may be
generated across most of fcst area if a long advertised closed low
manages to actually take shape to the west of the state. Aftn temps
will trend near to a little below seasonal norms through at least
the weekend, while nighttime lows mostly stay near to a little
above the norm.

Computer fcst models are still struggling to resolve their
differences in the overall pattern from the weekend and beyond.
The east will probably have the best chance over the weekend of
wetting rains and storms, but it is less clear how much activity
will occur farther west. Early to mid week next week the weather
depiction is wildly variable among the extended fcst models.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 AM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

NMZ501>540-151215-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
608 AM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 2 PM MDT TO 10 PM MDT
BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO SEVERE
STORMS.

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1240 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

NMZ523-141900-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
1240 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY
UNTIL 100 PM MDT...

AT 1239 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ENCINO AND DURAN...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
VAUGHN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ENCINO AND DURAN.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 285 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 223 AND 228.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 10546 3466 10561 3477 10547 3452 10531
      3447 10531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 235DEG 13KT 3459 10544

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             15 S FORT SUMNER        34.26N 104.24W
09/13/2016  M1.25 INCH       DE BACA            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601386

JLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

NMZ534-141930-
QUAY COUNTY-
121 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL QUAY COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM
MDT...

AT 121 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF SAN JON...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUCUMCARI...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL QUAY
COUNTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 10360 3505 10364 3515 10348 3500 10341
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 243DEG 12KT 3506 10350

GUYER