Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1206 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Continued moisture tap will ensure another healthy crop of
scattered to numerous showers and storms with upper high to the
east of NM and weak trough over far ne AZ moving into far nw NM.
With a weak disturbance drifting north from nw Mexico and the
trough near the 4 corners the majority of TAF sites should see
50 percent or better chances of shra and tsra between 20z and 03z,
the exceptions being KTCC and KROW. Mts occasionally obscured in
SCT to NMRS showers and thunderstorms...also the stronger tsra may
produce some relatively brief mvfr cigs and vsby. Convection will
continue...though with fewer tsra...across the NW third of the
state overnight...while remainder should see a most of the
activity dying out before 06z. Lcl MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in
clouds and fog will likely develop tonight across western and
perhaps central NM after 05z.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A wet monsoon weather pattern will persist across much of northern
and central New Mexico for the foreseeable future, with only
southeast portions of the state missing out on rain. Storms will
produce locally heavy rainfall today and tonight, with potential
for flash flooding across much of central and western New Mexico.
A fairly wet period will persist through the weekend with a bit of
a downtrend early next week, although a few afternoon and evening
storms will still be around. Another wet period looks to set up
toward the end of next week with potential for more heavy
rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The atmosphere underperformed yesterday in terms of storm
coverage, especially here in the Albuquerque Metro, but an uptick
is anticipated later today and tonight as PWATs continue to trend
up and the weak upper low over Arizona moves northeast across the
four corners. PWATs are forecast to trend up to near 1.30" at KABQ
this evening, which would be near record value. A moisture-loaded
atmosphere means it won't take much heating to get convection
going, but this is a double edged sword in that early cloud
development would limit later heating and thunderstorm depth
leading to lower rainfall amounts. Tricky for sure, but all of the
00z model solutions show fairly significant QPF across western and
northern portions of our area today and tonight. Will keep the
flash flood watch up for now, but remove some of the eastern-most
zones due mainly to a lower PoP forecast there. A backdoor front,
currently pushing south into northeast Colorado, is forecast to
slide into northeast New Mexico later today and may act as a focus
for convection through Friday night.

An active monsoon pattern will persist through the weekend with
the upper high to the east, west coast troughing and above normal
PWATs persisting. The west coast trough will make eastward
progress early next week and spread drier air east into New
Mexico, leading to a downtrend in PWATs and a short-lived warming
trend. However, by late week another uptick in storms with
potential for heavy rainfall looks to be a good bet with both the
00z ECMWF and GFS showing the upper high to the east, troughing to
the west and a potential tropical moisture tap.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southerly flow aloft continues to transport moisture into the state
today. Heavy rain and flash flooding once again the main concerns
this afternoon and evening. A weak upper low lifts northeastward
across northwest New Mexico, helping to fire off scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms areawide. Western and northern NM
are the favored areas for heavy rainfall today. The weak upper low
over the northwest will keep scattered showers and storms going
across the northwest plateau overnight.

A similar scenario is expected Friday, despite the upper high
inching westward into southeast NM. Strong southwest flow aloft will
lead to a few strong storms across the northeast highlands and
plains.

The upper high continues to shift slightly westward during the
weekend, pinching off the southerly transport of monsoon moisture
somewhat. Still plenty of residual moisture for healthy crops of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially
mountains.

An unseasonably deep closed low over the PACNW results in drier
westerly flow aloft Monday. This dry air results in a marked
decrease in thunderstorms across the northwest third of the state
both Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF is back to bringing up the remnant
circulation and moisture from Hurricane Earl toward mid week. GFS is
similar but slower, brining up the remnant moisture at the end
of next week.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ501>529.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

NMZ501>540-051200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
552 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ON AND NEAR BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...A FEW STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BETWEEN RATON AND CLAYTON NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

NMZ503-504-042130-
FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
252 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 252 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF LINDRITH...OR 26 MILES NORTH OF CUBA...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL RIO
ARRIBA COUNTY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 10693 3661 10692 3658 10692 3658 10691
      3656 10690 3655 10691 3653 10689 3631 10705
      3633 10723 3664 10719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 193DEG 17KT 3639 10710

54

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

NMZ501-042130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-
258 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SAN JUAN COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 257 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN FARMINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARMINGTON...NAPI HEADQUARTERS...FLORA VISTA AND UPPER FRUITLAND.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 10816 3666 10827 3686 10825 3678 10804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 203DEG 11KT 3673 10819

GUYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

NMZ512-518-523-042145-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS-
320 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM MDT...

AT 320 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CANADA DE LOS ALAMOS TO LA BAJADA TO LAMY.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANTA FE...ELDORADO AT SANTA FE...GLORIETA...CANADA DE LOS ALAMOS...
LA BAJADA...CERRILLOS HILLS STATE PARK...MADRID...LAMY...
HYDE MEMORIAL STATE PARK AND LA CIENEGA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 264 AND 302.
 HIGHWAY 285 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 279 AND 290.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 10572 3539 10618 3540 10618 3539 10624
      3572 10625 3574 10583 3570 10578 3573 10577
      3573 10576 3574 10575 3574 10572
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 182DEG 18KT 3556 10583 3553 10624

GUYER