Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Similar TAFs this cycle to yesterday's 18z issuance. Highest
probabilities of thunderstorm impacts are at KLVS and KTCC...
followed by KROW and KSAF...then KAEG and KABQ in terms of
rankings. MVFR conditions forecast with thunderstorm impacts...
although brief IFR conditions are possible...especially at KLVS.
Better potential this evening for thunderstorm organization across
NE New Mexico than yesterday evening...with a S-SE progression
overnight. A moderate east canyon/gap wind forecast at KABQ later
this evening with gusts to near 32kts. KFMN and KGUP will be VFR
and free of thunderstorm impacts...but sinking smoke from wildfires
over Arizona may limit visibilities by Tuesday morning. Forecast
confidence too low to include in prevailing or tempo groups at
KFMN/KGUP.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern to continue through the forecast period.
Ridge of high pressure to our west will weaken as it moves over NM
through Tuesday. Storm over northern NV will weaken as well as it
drifts slowly east over the state Wednesday through Thursday. Next
trough will move inland this weekend and draw more moisture north
ahead of it, making this weekend more unsettled than previously
thought.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Last evenings/overnight Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is
weakening over our southeast zones. We will likely see a repeat
late today into tonight over the east. Steering flow may be more
southeast versus the due south flow of the current dying MCS. It
will be another very warm day with above normal highs, except over
our southeast zones where clouds will be slow to break this
morning. The ridge of high pressure to our west will inch east
with drier air making it into western NM. Northwest zones will be
dry and hot, while any storms near the AZ border in the Gila
region will be mostly dry. Storms in the northeast quarter of NM
could be strong to severe. Another active night across the east
while isolated convection in our central zones ends during the
night.

The ridge of high pressure makes it over NM Tuesday albeit in a
weaker state. Surface dewpoints will lower most areas as drier
air continues to press into the state from west to east. Showers
and thunderstorms will be fewer in number and mostly confined from
the central mountains to the TX border. Highs will be mainly above
normal.

The northern NV storm will weaken and inch toward NM, finally
drifting across the state from Wednesday through Thursday before
getting caught up in the developing southwest flow aloft. This
southwest flow will be the result of the next storm system
approaching the west coast at the end of this week, in the form of
a longwave trough. Another round of increased moisture will get
drawn north ahead of it late this week and next weekend. Mostly
places will have at least isolated convection from Thursday
through Saturday with the western and northern mountains having
the highest POPS.

A closed low will develop out of the western trough over southern
CA this coming weekend and deepen as it moves through AZ. It will
then weaken as it crosses NM early next week, providing us with
another significant round of precipitation. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidities will generally trend downward through Wednesday with a
downtick in thunderstorm coverage today and Tuesday. In fact, it
should be dry enough by Tuesday for no thunderstorms in the west.
Spotty convection may return to the west on Wednesday as a weak
upper level trough shifts southeastward over the state.  Some
storms will produce little or no rain west of the northern and
central mountains to the AZ border today and Wednesday.

Moisture will increase from the south Thursday through the end of
the week as an upper level trough gradually shifts inland from the
Pacific and an upper level low pressure system slowly crosses the
NW corner of the US. This will cause thunderstorm coverage to
trend upward again with a moister ratio of wet to dry cells.

Otherwise, high temperatures will be above to well above normal
through the work week, except for some below normal readings in
the east today and in the west Friday. It will also be gusty each
day in the east. The strongest winds should be Tuesday, ahead of
Wednesday's weak upper trough. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

52

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
510 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2016

NMZ501>540-071200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
510 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR
EARLY JUNE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND...FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM WEDNESDAY ON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO
SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA
TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG NMWX.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1258 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016

NMZ514-515-061945-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
1258 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY
UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

AT 1258 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF COWLES...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCIADA.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS E.V. LONG
CAMPGROUND AND EL PORVENIR CAMPGROUND.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON HIGHWAYS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL ON ROADS CAN CREATE VERY SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 10532 3562 10546 3575 10562 3587 10556
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 295DEG 1KT 3579 10554

CL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
215 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016

NMZ512-514-515-062045-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS-EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
215 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 215 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UPPER COLONIAS...OR 20 MILES WEST OF LAS
VEGAS...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PECOS...UPPER COLONIAS...GLORIETA...LOWER COLONIAS AND MINERAL HILL.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 303 AND 307.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS E.V. LONG
CAMPGROUND...EL PORVENIR CAMPGROUND...FIELD TRACT CAMPGROUND...LISBOA
SPRINGS FISH HATCHERY...AND PECOS NATIONAL HISTORICAL PARK.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL ON ROADS CAN CREATE VERY SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 10541 3559 10540 3560 10541 3559 10542
      3557 10541 3554 10542 3555 10540 3549 10540
      3550 10569 3552 10570 3550 10571 3550 10575
      3574 10568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 021DEG 15KT 3565 10558

CL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
221 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016

NMZ511-062045-
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
221 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOS ALAMOS AND EAST
CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 221 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF LOS ALAMOS...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOS ALAMOS...JEMEZ SPRINGS...JEMEZ STATE MONUMENT AND PONDEROSA.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS JEMEZ FALLS
CAMPGROUND...PALIZA CAMPGROUND...REDONDO CAMPGROUND...SAN ANTONIO
CAMPGROUND...VISTA LINDA CAMPGROUND...PAJARITO MOUNTAIN SKI
AREA...JEMEZ STATE MONUMENT...TENT ROCKS NATIONAL MONUMENT...AND
BATTLESHIP ROCK.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL ON ROADS CAN CREATE VERY SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 10632 3564 10637 3562 10639 3561 10638
      3559 10638 3559 10639 3570 10678 3598 10663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 021DEG 15KT 3585 10646

CL