Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Albuquerque, NM

331 
WWUS55 KABQ 060052
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
652 PM MDT SAT NOV 5 2016

NMC053-060100-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-161106T0100Z/
SOCORRO-
652 PM MDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY...

AT 651 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF
BERNARDO...OR 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELEN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

HEAVY RAINS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN AND
DANGEROUS FLOW IN ARROYOS...DITCHES AND OVER LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 10700 3458 10698 3434 10689 3429 10723
      3447 10729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 252DEG 13KT 3443 10712 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
619 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Mainly -SHRA continue across the eastern plains this evening, with
scattered -TSRA across central NM. The TS across central NM should
wane near or just after 06Z, but showers and a few TS may
continue off and on across the east thru the overnight hours. In
addition, IFR cigs and fog will be possible at many locales
overnight, especially across the east. Would be more confident on
fog potential across the west if the upper ridge were building in
faster than models currently project, so have backed off a bit in
the western tafs. Showers and t-storms should continue across the
eastern plains until the trough axis shifts east of the state
around midday Sunday.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west to east late
tonight. Patchy fog is expected to develop over portions of the
Rio Grande Valley and within western New Mexico. Sunshine will
return slowly Sunday afternoon for much of central and western
New Mexico while a few showers and storms linger along the Texas
state line. Monday will be sunny with cool temperatures over much
of the area. The next low pressure system will attempt to develop
over southern New Mexico Tuesday through the end of the week. At
this time it appears most of the area will remain dry with cool
temperatures and overall light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The center of upper level low pressure is drifting northeast from
the Four Corners region into south-central CO this afternoon. Low
level upslope flow and elevated moist instability beneath the wave
has aided a large area of heavy rain/storms near the TX state line.
20Z LAPS shows surface based instability developing within central
NM and is still expected to provide the focus for showers & storms
closer to the mid/upper level trough axis late today. This area of
precip is shown by near-term guidance to develop into another large
band that will push into the plains tonight. Any clearing across
central & western NM will allow for the development of patchy fog.
A couple more inches of snow are also likely for the Sangre de
Cristos above 10kft tonight.

The base of the upper trough will shift east and exit into the high
plains Sunday. Drier northwest flow will move into the state and
scour out any remnant precip across the east. A 1021mb surface high
center building into the area Monday morning will trend min temps
the coldest they've been in many days. Monday will be a transition
day as a 55-65kt 300mb jet pushing south out of Colorado carves
out another upper low over NM. Temps will remain cool and a few
more rain/snow showers are expected over the northern mts. Another
round of fog is possible Monday night.

Confidence beyond Monday is low as guidance continues to waffle
around with how far south the upper low digs while an upper ridge
takes shape over the central Rockies. Several ensemble members are
in agreement now the upper low will end up in northern Mexico. At
this time, it appears the weather pattern will be mostly tranquil
with a very dry surface high building south over NM. This will make
way for strong nocturnal inversions & efficient radiational cooling
through much of the week. Nudged below guidance on min temps which
look to be the coldest of the fall season so far for much of eastern
NM and the RGV. Nov.7,1987 marks the latest min temp less than 40F
at the ABQ Sunport and we are poised to easily extend that record
to the Nov.9-10 timeframe.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low pressure system that stalled over the Four
Corners today will finally open into a trough and track eastward
along the CO/NM border tonight and Sunday, before ejecting eastward
into the Great Plains Sunday night.  Until the base of the trough
crosses, showers, thunderstorms and high terrain snow will continue.
There could be some instability showers behind the trough in the
northern mountains on Sunday, but these should be light. The snow
level is expected to bottom out about 10,500 FT Sunday morning, and
there could be another inch or two of snow across the high terrain
of the northern mountains by then.  After another round of stellar
RH recoveries tonight, humidities will trend downward in the
wake of the upper trough starting Sunday.

Models keep changing their tune on what will happen with a secondary
upper low that will develop over the region after this weekend's
system exits.  Yesterday they dropped the secondary upper low
southward over NM from the north, but today's model runs develop the
upper low southeast or south of the forecast area with only a small
chance of precip favoring the northern mountains and east central
plains Monday night. The system will draw colder air into NM with a
freeze likely early Tuesday and early Wednesday across northeast and
east central parts of the forecast area that have already frozen
previously this Fall.

After ventilation improvement across much of the forecast area on
Sunday, when pockets of poor ventilation will linger across north
central and northeast areas, a broad area of poor ventilation is
expected to develop across the western half of the forecast area on
Monday. This will spread to include north central and northeast
areas Tuesday.  Then, most places should be impacted by poor
ventilation Wednesday and Thursday.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT SAT NOV 5 2016

NMZ501>540-061130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
528 AM MDT SAT NOV 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOCORRO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH A STRONG STORM AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NEAR VAUGHN AND ENCINO
SOUTHWARD INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
TEXAS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...STRONG WINDS...OR
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE
WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN
ALSO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA
TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG NMWX.

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 PM MDT SAT NOV 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             4 E ALBUQUERQUE         35.12N 106.56W
11/05/2016  E1.00 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   TWITTER FEED

            LOUISIANA AND INDIAN SCHOOL

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601409

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 PM MDT SAT NOV 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             4 ENE ALBUQUERQUE       35.14N 106.56W
11/05/2016  E1.00 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   TWITTER FEED

            MONTGOMERY AND WYOMING

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601410

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 PM MDT SAT NOV 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             7 NE ALBUQUERQUE        35.19N 106.54W
11/05/2016  M1.00 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PASEO DEL NORTE AND BARSTOW NE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601411

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 PM MDT SAT NOV 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             6 NE ALBUQUERQUE        35.18N 106.56W
11/05/2016  M0.88 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601412

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT SAT NOV 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             7 NE ALBUQUERQUE        35.17N 106.52W
11/05/2016  M0.88 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CLAY REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT PASEO DEL NORTE AND
            EUBANK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601413

RJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 PM MDT SAT NOV 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             6 ESE ALBUQUERQUE       35.08N 106.53W
11/05/2016  E0.88 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            I-40 AND EUBANK

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601414

JLP