Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Albuquerque, NM

790 
WWUS55 KABQ 092039
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
239 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

NMC053-092115-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-161009T2115Z/
SOCORRO-
239 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY...

AT 238 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
SAN ACACIA...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO...MOVING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 141 AND 167.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

ACCUMULATIONS OF HAIL ON ROADS CAN CREATE VERY SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 10729 3437 10713 3425 10665 3389 10681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 352DEG 9KT 3426 10711 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

40

154 
WWUS55 KABQ 092056
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
256 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

NMC053-092115-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-161009T2115Z/
SOCORRO-
256 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY...

AT 256 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MAGDALENA...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 151 AND 165.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

ACCUMULATIONS OF HAIL ON ROADS CAN CREATE VERY SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 10729 3437 10713 3424 10677 3399 10695
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 352DEG 9KT 3422 10711 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

40

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A smattering of -SHRA continue across portions of N and E NM this
noon hour. As heating further destabilizes the area this
afternoon, expect -SHRA/-TSRA to develop across much of the high
terrain before shifting eastward. Timing will be hard to pinpoint
for impacts to any one taf site, but generally backed off on TS
timing an hour or so to allow more destabilization to occur.
Storms will have the potential to produce brief MVFR cigs, small
hail and gusty downburst winds. Storms will decrease from west to
east late tonight. Otherwise, the main concern will be the low
cigs across the E plains and potentially across the Rio Grande
Valley. Low clouds currently across the EC and SE plains are
becoming more transient with time. Confidence is high that IFR
cigs will impact KTCC and KROW again tonight, with lesser
confidence at KLVS (due to downsloping flow), KSAF, KAEG and
KABQ.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure aloft will slowly cross the area
today before exiting to the east after midnight. This system will
interact with plentiful moisture in place and result in another
active day of showers and thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible mainly for central and southern
areas south of Interstate 40 this afternoon and evening. A drier
and warmer pattern will dominate Columbus Day although isolated
build-ups and possibly an afternoon shower or thunderstorm will
remain possible over the higher terrain. Even warmer and drier
condtions will dominate Tuesday before the next cold front pushes
southward on Wednesday. After a warming trend early in the week,
cooler than average temperatures and an increasing chance of
precipitation can be expected by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small MCS slowly tracking eastward toward the Socorro/Lower RGV region
early this morning while another distinct area of convection showing
signs of upscale organization across the southern portion of the
east- central plains. Both areas appear to be largely tied to
region of enhanced upper level difluence ahead of low amplitude
wave centered over northeast AZ. Indeed, a closer inspection of
water vapor imagery suggests a mesocale low pressure center or MCV
associated with the above-mentioned MCS as it rolled out of
eastern Catron County. With assistance from the latest HRRR,
attempted to value- add morning PoP grid to account for this on-
going convection as it does appear that SC to EC zones will be
favored in the 12Z-18Z window. Elsewhere, both the NAM12 and HRRR
show increased shower activity from central to northwest New
Mexico through the remainder of the morning. But PoP placement
especially challenging in this pattern characterized by modest
large- scale forcing. Will show overall coverage ramping up after
midday, especially across the north and along/east of the central
mountain chain.

Daytime temperatures should warm several degrees over Saturday for
all but the far north. As a result, beneath a broad and relatively
cool cyclonic flow aloft, convective parameters will become even
more favorable for central/southern areas than they were on
Saturday with surface based CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kj
indicated in the presence of moderately strong westerlies aloft.
Could see a few strong to briefly severe storms south of I-40.
Otherwise, focus for the greatest coverage of NMRS/WDSPRD PoPs
across the north and especially the higher terrain aided by
orographics.

Mid-level trough axis to slide east of the area shortly after
midnight tonight with drier/more stable conditions to follow for
Monday. Included a mention of patchy fog for the western valleys
and this may need to be expanded. Light snow accums for the peaks
of the northern mountains still on target but generally above
11kft. Residual moisture and daytime heating may touch off very
isolated mountain convection Monday PM but coverage too low to
mention most areas. Main message Columbus Day into Tuesday will
be warming temperatures under an increasing zonal flow aloft. Good
downslope warming signal on the plains for Tuesday PM. Stronger
nighttime inversions and drier air mass will result in a
significant widening of diurnal ranges.

Next backdoor front still on track to plunge into the northeast
plains early Wednesday, with cooler upslope conditions spreading
southward Wednesday night. As another weak wave approaches late
Wednesday into Thursday, areas of convective precipitation likely
to develop mainly focused across EC-SE New Mexico with clearing
Thursday night. Dry with warmer than average daytime temps
Friday- Sunday. kj

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture is present over northern and central New Mexico,
and this should preclude any fire weather concerns today. The
original Pacific trough has shed one disturbance northeast of NM
while a secondary one in northern AZ is still staged to shift into
northern NM. Thus north central to northwestern NM will be a focal
area for shower and storm initiation today while a secondary area
potentially persists farther south where a weak jet aloft is
assisting. Overall, an active and wet day is forecast with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over a large section of the
forecast area today.

Despite an abundance of moisture, clouds, showers and storms,
today's high temperatures are still forecast to nudge slightly above
yesterday's readings in most locales, running near to just slightly
below mid October averages. Humidity values will remain elevated
into the late afternoon, generally ranging from 40 to 60 percent
with a few isolated spots staying even higher. Today's ventilation
forecast includes a remnant patch or two of poor dispersion, mainly
in the northern mountains, but breezy conditions will develop in the
northeastern plains this afternoon. Precipitation is expected to
wane from west to east this evening and overnight.

A clearing trend is expected Monday as drier conditions gradually
work in from the west. Temperatures will rebound some, meeting or
just slightly exceeding seasonal averages. This will support rising
mixing heights, and consequently ventilation grids are indicating
fair to good rates by Monday afternoon. Minimum humidity will start
to decline some with the warmer temperatures, but nothing critical
is expected at this time. Some breezy conditions will ensue in the
afternoon along the Interstate 40 corridor, but elsewhere breezes
will be light to moderate, predominantly from the west.

A trough moving into the northern Rockies on Tuesday will drag some
scant moisture into WY and CO, but should stay mostly north of NM.
Temperatures will warm a couple degrees more, and humidity will fall
a bit more to the 15 to 25 percent range for most zones. As winds
aloft strengthen in response to the trough passing farther north,
sufficient vertical mixing should transport breezy west winds down
to many zones Tuesday afternoon.

By Wednesday forecast models are coming into better agreement
regarding the arrival of a cold front that is expected to invade the
northeast corner of NM early in the day, spilling through the
remainder of the plains through the daytime. Some gusts could
accelerate through central canyons, leading to windy conditions in
localized areas within the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday night.
Otherwise conditions appear dry Wednesday and Wednesday night, but
another weak disturbance aloft could bring the next round of
precipitation to east central NM on Thursday. The forecast for the
remainder of the week remains dry and fairly tranquil with an
absence of any significant large scale perturbations.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
427 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

NMZ501>540-101200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
427 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORM MOTIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNING FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ
OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS
AND PHOTOS ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG
NMWX.

41

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
152 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

NMZ507-508-520-092015-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
152 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MDT...

AT 152 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES NORTHWEST OF MAGDALENA...OR 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DATIL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
SOCORRO COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 10746 3445 10744 3444 10699 3417 10704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 278DEG 16KT 3435 10737

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
227 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

NMZ507-508-520-092100-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
227 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 226 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF SAN ACACIA...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEMITAR...SAN ACACIA...LA JOYA...CHAMIZAL AND CONTRERAS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 174.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON HIGHWAYS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 10724 3440 10719 3441 10672 3413 10679
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 274DEG 30KT 3430 10710

40