Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Albuquerque, NM

377 
WWUS55 KABQ 040037
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
637 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NMC059-040100-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-160704T0100Z/
UNION-
637 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY...

AT 636 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
KENTON...OR 25 MILES NORTH OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3696 10304 3695 10300 3682 10300 3674 10301
      3679 10330 3698 10326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 285DEG 41KT 3680 10302 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

54

637 
WWUS55 KABQ 040048
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
648 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NMC059-040058-
/O.CAN.KABQ.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-160704T0100Z/
UNION-
648 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3696 10304 3695 10300 3682 10300 3674 10301
      3679 10330 3698 10326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 280DEG 49KT 3677 10281 

$$

54

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Drier air aloft from the west confining thunderstorms to the
northeast quarter of the state. Storms expected to gradually
dissipate several hours after sunset. A few strong to severe
storms are possible across Harding and northern Quay counties
through 03z. Expect ISOLD IFR cigs and vsbys with strong/severe
storms. A slight uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected
across central NM Monday afternoon and evening as a weak upper
level wave moves through.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier westerly winds will lead to spottier thunderstorms and a
warming trend through midweek. High temperatures may approach record
values for portions of the eastern plains especially Tuesday and
Wednesday. Mid to late week, forecast models depict an upper level
low pressure system crossing the northern Rockies while drawing
modest subtropical moisture northward into New Mexico. This should
produce an uptick in thunderstorm coverage while causing high
temperatures to trend downward a little.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Drying has continued today with occasionally gusty northwest winds
and dew points mixing out even more vigorously this afternoon.
Portions of the north central and northeast will be the most likely
places to see any wetting rainfall through this evening. Both RAP
and HRRR remain focused on this part of NM this evening, and both
suggest what appears to be an outflow boundary sagging through the
east central plains and south of Interstate 40 before midnight and
into the se plains thereafter. Increased pops a tad in the northeast
and trimmed a little in the southwest for tonight with short term
models painting most of the southwestern convection they develop
south of Catron county. There is still potential for isolated strong
storms in the northeast into this evening per the SPC outlook.

Another weak trough passing over NM Monday may spark a few more storms
over the forecast area, with isolated storms focused from the central
mt chain eastward Monday night. A rather dry forecast following the
Fourth remains likely. While Monday will be warmer, some of the
temperature guidance hints at a near record high for KROW Monday.
Potential for near record high temperatures expands over larger
portions of the eastern plains Tuesday and Wednesday.

A modest amount of moisture may find it's way northward Wednesday
night into Thursday night or Friday for an uptick in convective
activity as an upper low pressure system passes over the northern
Rockies, shifting the upper winds over NM enough to draw moisture
northward. Not what would be categorized as the monsoon, however.
But enough to result in a mix of wet and dry with gusty winds kind
of storms for the south and east. Highs may cool down a bit as well.
For next weekend, an even more unseasonably strong upper low tracks
into the Pac NW and northern Rockies, bringing even drier air to the
west and central and possibly setting up a dryline in the far
eastern plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

After an early start to the 2016 North American Monsoon...an
unusually warm/dry period is setting up and may persist through the
next 10 days for central and western portions of the state. Hot...
dry and unstable will be the theme.

The drying is already being observed...with humidity recovery this
morning down compared to the previous morning and 24hr surface
dewpoint change values currently averaging -5 across the forecast
area. This trend will continue tonight with humidity recovery
forecast to be fair/good central and west...and good/excellent north
and east.

More drying Monday as the upper high shifts east over southern New
Mexico and minimum humidity reaches below critical threshold across
much of the lower elevations. A weak shortwave trough...currently
over southern California and moving into the Great
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and will persist through the TAF period
with a couple of potential exceptions. Showers or storms may move
in the vicinity of KLVS and KTCC later this afternoon...with
brief MVFR conditions possible in/near showers/storms. However...
probabilities too low to include in TAFs. Otherwise...gusty
northwest winds forecast this afternoon.

11 Basin...will move
across the southern Rockies and northern New Mexico late Monday.
This trough will combine with instability from daytime heating and
what paltry moisture is left over to produce a round of storms that
will have a very small wetting footprint and may result in some
lightning starts. Tuesday and Wednesday are looking very hot...dry
and unstable as we remain stuck with the westerlies...lee side
troughing and afternoon breeziness. Near record highs are forecast
Monday through Wednesday at a number of eastern plains locales.

Moisture may get pulled north around the upper high circulation
Thu/Fri as a trough/low progresses east across the northern
Rockies...resulting in improved chances for wetting rain though
likely limited to southern New Mexico. Any significant moisture
trend reversals late in the forecast cycle would be across eastern
New Mexico as Gulf Moisture advects north as an anomalously deep
upper low moves inland from the Pacific NW. Areas west of the
central mountain chain may be dry through the next 10 days if the
12z GFS and ECMWF work out.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NMZ501>540-041200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
536 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNING FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
435 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NMZ528-531-032300-
HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
435 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MORA AND NORTHWESTERN
HARDING COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 435 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MILLS...OR 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROY...MILLS AND CHICOSA LAKE STATE PARK.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 10446 3622 10438 3612 10389 3586 10401
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 291DEG 29KT 3612 10434

54

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
457 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NMZ534-032330-
QUAY COUNTY-
457 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN QUAY COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

AT 457 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NARA VISA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NARA VISA.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 10325 3572 10314 3568 10304 3544 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 299DEG 19KT 3561 10312

54

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
512 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NMZ531-040000-
HARDING COUNTY-
512 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HARDING COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM MDT...

AT 511 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHICOSA LAKE STATE PARK...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF
MOSQUERO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROY.

FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 10421 3610 10409 3582 10344 3559 10362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 302DEG 34KT 3598 10406

54

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NMZ530-040045-
UNION COUNTY-
600 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

AT 559 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES WEST OF KENTON...OR 31 MILES NORTH OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 10301 3679 10331 3698 10335 3700 10327
      3700 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 257DEG 31KT 3691 10324

54

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
612 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             MOSQUERO                35.77N 103.95W
07/03/2016  E1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HEAVY HAIL AT 1 WITH STRONG
            PRE-STORM GUST FRONT KNOCKING LIMBS OFF TREES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601318

RJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOSQUERO                35.77N 103.95W
07/03/2016                   SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HEAVY HAIL AT 1 WITH STRONG
            PRE-STORM GUST FRONT KNOCKING LIMBS OFF TREES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601319

RJH