High Wind Watch 9, NWS Albuquerque, NM

352 
WWUS75 KABQ 152159
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
359 PM MDT SAT OCT 15 2016

...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...

.WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
REGION LATER SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY INCREASING SURFACE WINDS ALSO 
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL IMPACT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD EAST DOWN THE
EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER AND NEAR THE RATON RIDGE OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

NMZ512>515-527-161100-
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.A.0009.161017T0300Z-161017T1800Z/
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
359 PM MDT SAT OCT 15 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATION...SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON 
  MESA. 

* WINDS...WESTERLY AT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH.

* TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITY...NO LIMITATIONS.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS WILL BECOME 
  AIRBORNE. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...BLOW WEAKENED ROOFS 
  OFF HOUSES...DOWN POWER LINES AND CREATE DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS 
  ON ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HIGH WIND EVENT IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH
OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ...LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.

&&

$$

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267 
WWUS75 KABQ 160929
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 AM MDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...

.THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE A SOUTHERLY DIP INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY AND BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THESE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
IMPACT THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE BEGINNING
TONIGHT...BUT WILL THEN SPREAD DOWN AND IMPACT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCALES AS WELL ON MONDAY.

NMZ512>515-527-162200-
/O.UPG.KABQ.HW.A.0009.161017T0300Z-161017T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.HW.W.0010.161017T0600Z-161018T0100Z/
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
329 AM MDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM MDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM
MDT MONDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON 
  MESA. 

* WINDS...WESTERLY AT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AT 7 PM MDT. THE
  STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITY...NO LIMITATIONS.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS WILL BECOME 
  AIRBORNE. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...BLOW WEAKENED ROOFS 
  OFF HOUSES...DOWN POWER LINES AND CREATE DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS 
  ON ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS DAMAGING WINDS ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR
GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
317 AM MDT SAT OCT 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An increasingly warm, dry and windy period is forecast through at
least Monday, with a number of eastern plains locales tying or
exceeding daily record highs. Strong to potentially damaging winds
will develop over the Sangre De Cristo Mountains Sunday night and
continue into Monday as the jet stream dips south over the
southern Rockies. Strong winds may spread east and south to the
lower elevations Monday to include areas along and north of
Interstate 40 east of the mountains. A weak cold front will push
in Tuesday and begin a cooling trend that will ramp-up with a
stronger front late Wednesday. By Thursday, daytime temperatures
will be below normal for a change across much of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Gulf moisture is making a run into portions of the southeast and
east central plains, mainly east of the Pecos River Valley, with
fog and low stratus developing per the latest IR satellite imagery
and surface obs. However, this low layer moisture will mix-out
quickly today with an increasingly dry atmosphere forecast over
the state. The warming trend will continue today, with above to
well above normal temperatures forecast and a few eastern plains
locales challenging daily record highs.

Winds throughout the column will be on the uptrend Sunday into
Monday as a strong jet stream penetrates further south and east
into the southern Rockies. Stronger downslope winds will keep the
warming trend going, with daily record highs being challenged at a
number of eastern plains locales both Sunday and Monday. With the
dry, unusually warm and unstable conditions comes the potential
for critical fire weather east of the central mountain chain (see
discussion below for details). The 00z models are showing good
run-to-run consistency with the potential for mountain wave
activity to develop both Saturday night and Sunday night to the
lee of the Sangres as a core of stronger winds moves overhead
(50-60kts at 700mb). Will issue a high wind watch for Sunday night
into Monday morning for portions of the Sangres including the
Raton Ridge zone. Stronger winds will mix down to the lower
elevations east of the Sangres Monday and wind advisories may be
required for areas along/north of Interstate 40 generally east of
the mountains.

A cooling trend will begin Tuesday with a weak cold front, but
will really kick-in late Wednesday with a stronger front that
will send daytime temperatures below normal for much of the area
by Thursday and offer quite the contrast to Monday's highs. The
00Z GFS and ECMWF disagree on the timing and amplitude of the
parent trough, with the GFS the colder and more amplified solution
this cycle. Our temperature forecast for next Thu/Fri is a
compromise of the 00z GFS and ECMWF for now and our Thursday PoP
forecast gives a nod to the wetter GFS across the eastern plains.
Both models show increasing pressure heights going into next
weekend as an upper high builds over the Desert Southwest/Northern
Baja, with high temperatures trending back above normal by next
Saturday.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing wind, unusually warm temperatures and low humidity
will be the normal through Mon/Tue. High confidence for critical
conditions across the eastern Plains so issued a Red Flag Warning
Sunday afternoon to early eve. Confidence increasing for a repeat
performance Monday thus a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
that period.

An unusually dry and warm airmass will be in place through early
next week. High temperatures will be near to record levels during
this period, especially this weekend. Models remain steadfast by
projecting a strong zonal or westerly flow over the state. A
strong jet will sink southward this weekend and peak over the area
Sunday night into Monday. At the same time, a deepening leeside
surface pressure trough will be found across the eastern plains
and Great Plains. Wind speeds will increase accordingly and
especially impact the high mountain peaks and areas along and
north of I40 across the east. Models are showing a Chinook feel
wind event Sunday night with residual impacts into Monday over the
high peaks and adjacent slopes/plains of the Sangre de Cristos.
Main forecast challenge will be how low the humidity can go with
the downslope effect. Undercut model guidance for dewpoints for
the main wind area. Mixing heights not too high but models tend to
under do the mechanical mixing impacts on surface
humidity, especially with a pronounced dry slot/intrusion aloft.
RH recoveries will lower during this period but lowest readings
will be found to the lee of the central mtns thus setting up a
longer burn/drying window. With surface fuels trending towards
dormancy, fire danger should be heightened. Haines 5 to isol 6
will impact much of the east Sunday/Monday. Locally critical
conditions this afternoon between Clines Corners to Tucumcari.

Some cooling should occur Tuesday as a Pacific wave moves over the
central and northern Rockies and buckles the jet. Surface winds
should turn more northerly across the eastern plains due to a weak
back door cold front. Some breezes are expected during the afternoon
and the gridded wind forecast may be a bit underdone but certainly
not the speeds compared to Sunday/Monday. RH values rise but still
pretty low with lots of teens to lower 20s for minimums.

A more distinct Pacific cold front will sweep across the forecast
area Wednesday. This includes a traditional frontal passage from NW
to SE as well as a back door front across the eastern plains. The
ECMWF is a bit more bullish or quicker in its depiction of the cold
frontal passage compared to the GFS. Either way, temps would cool
some more with a rise in humidity across the east. Models show
lowering humidity across the west due to a strengthening mid level
dry intrusion and influx of lower dewpoint air.

Models show a bubble high developing over AZ/southern Calif Thu/Fri.
This sets up a broad NW flow over northern/central NM. Definitely
some model difference between GFS and ECMWf as it concerns the east
and some precipitation potential. Too early to call at this time.
ECMWF drier than GFS at this time. Understand the GFS has been flip
flopping as of late.

Despite the paltry mixing heights, increased transport winds will
lead to pretty good ventilation through Monday. Vent Rates should
decrease on Tue but climb some on Wed. Post cold frontal inversion
would most likely be a player from west to east Thu/Fri and lead
to lowering vent rates.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Dry wly flow aloft with occasional high clouds. Wly wind gusts to
around 40kt possible over and immediately east of the Sangre de
Cristo mts thru 12Z. Sfc lee trof persisting with low level
moisture returning to portions of se NM, especially along and east
of a line from near KROW to KCVN, where lcl br possible 15/08Z-
15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  79  41  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  74  35  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  75  39  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  79  35  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  75  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  79  36  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  78  43  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  84  49  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  70  34  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  75  49  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  76  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  74  38  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  66  39  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  68  33  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  77  34  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  76  47  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  78  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  75  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  79  43  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  46  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  49  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  84  46  84  45 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  86  51  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  48  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  78  49  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  41  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  77  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  78  48  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  83  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  77  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  83  48  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  85  41  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  85  42  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  81  45  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  88  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  87  48  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  91  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  90  54  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  93  56  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  87  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  88  53  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  91  51  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  90  51  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  86  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  83  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103-104-107-108.

High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for the
following zones... NMZ512>515-527.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT FRI OCT 14 2016

NMZ501>540-151200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
534 AM MDT FRI OCT 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COUPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ONE TO THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

11