Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Albuquerque, NM

597 
WGUS75 KABQ 300124
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
724 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

NMC047-300215-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-160830T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL-
724 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

AT 722 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE RAIN NEAR SAPELLO. THOUGH THE
INTENSITY OF THE STORMS HAS WEAKENED...RUNOFF MAY STILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 518 NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAPELLO AND HIGHWAY 266
WEST OF SAPELLO. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAPELLO AND MANUELITAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 10507 3577 10504 3575 10506 3569 10521
      3569 10538 3584 10536

$$

34

866 
WGUS75 KABQ 300206
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
806 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

NMC047-300216-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-160830T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL-
806 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 815 PM MDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3579 10507 3577 10504 3575 10506 3569 10521
      3569 10538 3584 10536

$$

40

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
611 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Abundant moisture is in place along and E of the central MT
chain, where low clouds and some fairly persistent precipitation
will probably produce areas of MVFR and IFR conditions. There are
some differences between the mesoscale models, but the east slopes
of the central MT chain, SE plains and E central plains are
favored for convection. Some models suggest the flight category
restriction may last through much of the day Tuesday. W of the
central MT chain spottier showers and storms will generally
diminish with sunset. In the ABQ area gusty E canyon winds driven
by thunderstorm outflow could necessitate an Aviation Weather
Warning for wind gusts to 35 KT at the Sunport this evening.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system weakening over New Mexico will
still continue to generate showers and thunderstorms through late
tonight. The heaviest rainfall is expected over the eastern plains.
Southerly flow will increase over the state Tuesday through Friday
as high pressure over the lower Mississippi river valley moves west
into Texas. This will allow for a potential significant increase in
the coverage of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. A drying and
warming trend is possible by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The center of upper level low pressure along the NM/CO border is
weakening and drifting westward. A well-defined axis of moisture
extends from this low southward to a remnant convective cluster
north of Puerto Vallarta. Low level winds have shifted to the
southeast and are advecting deeper moisture westward into central
NM, as evidenced by gap winds at KABQ and increasing dewpoints. As
was mentioned on previous discussions, abundant cloud cover and cool
temps have limited instability across the plains today, and storm
coverage is very slow to develop. Near-term high res guidance is
still very bullish with developing an axis of very heavy rainfall
tonight across southeast NM. Not all guidance members agree on this
area of rainfall so confidence is just not high enough to support a
Flash Flood Watch. However, the evening/overnight shift will need to
monitor closely. For now, have likely/definite POPs in the area and
mention heavy rainfall in weather grids.

Tuesday through Friday will feature upper level high pressure over
the lower MS river valley drifting westward toward NM. Models are
still not in good agreement on how the tropical disturbance over MX
will shift northward along the western periphery. The GFS is still
very wet Wednesday through Friday for central and western NM. The
NAM remains focused over eastern NM Wednesday and the ECMWF is
wet for southern NM. Essentially went with a blend of the guidance
and coordinated boundaries with surrounding forecast offices. Will
continue to mention the locally heavy rainfall to account for lack
of greater confidence.

There is still no improvement in extended forecast guidance with
respect to the approaching trough from the west by the weekend. The
GFS indicates much drier air moving in on rather breezy southwest
flow. This would allow for stronger diurnal temperature swings with
min temps quite chilly across the north and west. The ECMWF solution
is again out of phase with respect to storm coverage. Will show a
slow decrease in storm coverage through this period.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture will be be most abundant for much of the week across the
east half of the state and, at least from tonight into Wed, it
looks like that region will see the most significant rainfall from
waves of showers and thunderstorms. There should be some increase
in showers and storms west half Tue and Wednesday, but overall
wetting rain footprint size and actual amounts will mostly be
greater east than west. That may change Thu when the west may be
the more favored area, though not all fcst models agree on that just
yet. As much as 2 to 4 inches of rain may tally up through Thu or
Fri across primarily the southeast third of the fcst area. Even very
locally up to 5 inches or so may be realized at just a few spots
there. Elsewhere in the east amounts through the aforementioned time
period should reach a minimum of three quarters of an inch to an
inch on the low end of the range to nearly 3 inches on the high end.
Western locales will see considerably lover amounts overall, also
with less overall coverage, at least through Wed.

While little precip is forecast for the far northwest corner
of NM through Wed, nighttime RH recoveries will range from good to
very good while elsewhere in the very good to excellent range. This
general trend should continue into at least Fri if not Sat night.
Wind speeds will be in the light to at most moderate range with the
exception of the usual stronger but relatively brief thunderstorm
outflows.  the one exception to this scenario will be some locally
strong easterly gap winds below canyons into the Rio Grande Valley
between roughly 6 pm and 1 am tonight and to a lesser degree again
Tue night. Fairly high RH levels will preclude any critical fire wx
conditions. Haines values are expected to be mostly at 3 or less
through at least Sat. Ventilation values will range from poor to
fair through Thu with some patchy good rates mainly west. Rates will
improve thereafter through the weekend.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

NMZ501>540-301200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
551 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING. MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE TAJIQUE            34.78N 106.24W
08/29/2016                   TORRANCE           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3-4 FEET OF FLOWING WATER ON HWY 337

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601375

JLP