Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Las Vegas, NV

588 
WWUS55 KVEF 200648
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1148 PM MST MON OCT 19 2015

AZC015-200715-
/O.CON.KVEF.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-151020T0715Z/
MOHAVE AZ-
1148 PM MST MON OCT 19 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM MST
FOR SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY...

AT 1147 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSS MOUNTAIN TO NEAR BURRO
CREEK CAMPGROUND...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WIKIEUP AND BURRO CREEK CAMPGROUND AND HIGHWAY 93 AND INTERSTATE 40. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN ARIZONA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 71 AND
93.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 3443 11361 3520 11373 3524 11333 3441 11334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 159DEG 33KT 3498 11343 3459 11340 

$$

JH

438 
WWUS55 KVEF 200709
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1209 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

AZC015-200718-
/O.EXP.KVEF.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-151020T0715Z/
MOHAVE AZ-
1209 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM MST...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE...AND 
NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE 
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL 
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3443 11361 3520 11373 3524 11333 3441 11334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0705Z 158DEG 19KT 3498 11343 3459 11340 

$$

MORGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA
ARIZONA AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH BREEZES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...800 PM...RADAR RETURNS JUST SHOWING VERY WEAK ECHOS (LESS
THAN 30 DBZ) OCCASIONALLY OVER MOHAVE...LINCOLN..NYE...AND INYO
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. NO IMPACTS FROM THESE ECHOS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 06Z.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEARING THE BAJA COAST AT
THIS HOUR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE JUST BEGINNING TO
ROUND THE BASE OF THE PARENT TOUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTH TO THE
ID/MT BORDER. TWO PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FIRST...IT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 14 KTS
AT BISHOP DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INCREASING
FORCING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA IN AN AREA WITH 500-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM. PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND RANGE
FROM 0.50-1.00" OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. THUS RAIN RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN SUNDAY
EVENING...REDUCING THE OVERALL THREAT OF FLOODING. HOWEVER 25-35 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DCAPE VALUES OF 600-1100 J/KG WOULD POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH WITH STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT AND MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UNUSUAL OCTOBER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINS UP OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING AWAY TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
NORTH/CENTRAL NEVADA WAS BEGINNING TO STALL AND DIG DUE TO ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT
SERVES TO SPIN THE SYSTEM UP AND CLOSE IT OFF. THE TRACK AND
ORIENTATION OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOHAVE/CLARK/LINCOLN AND EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES UNDER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE COUNTER
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OVER AREAS WEST OF THE ARIZONA
BORDER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME NOTICEABLE ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
FAIRLY CLOSE TO READINGS OBSERVED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. IN IT'S WAKE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING DRIER AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS OVER 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SURROUNDING THE VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING LIMITED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF LAS
VEGAS. CIGS DOWN TO 5-7K FEET NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. INCREASING NORTH
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...AND NYE
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM LAS VEGAS
EASTWARD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS FROM THIS
WEEKEND. PLEASE REPORT ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT
AVIATION...PADDOCK

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