Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Las Vegas, NV

282 
WWUS85 KVEF 021100
RFWVEF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
400 AM PDT THU APR 2 2015



CAZ226-021200-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150402T1100Z/
OWENS VALLEY/SOUTHERN INYO FOREST-
400 AM PDT THU APR 2 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
226...

WIND HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. BREEZY WIND AND LOW RH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.


$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
321 AM PDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
USHER IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. DRY...WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE UNSETTLED SPRING
WEATHER SLATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S WINDS IS LIFTING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DECREASED
AS A RESULT. ALL WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN HAD REACHED THE NORTHWEST
LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS OF 2 AM WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ON THE WAY AND WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT...ESPECIALLY
THE WESTERN REGIONS. HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
MORONGO BASIN AREA. THE SYSTEM PASSES JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THIS AREA SINCE ACCUMULATING PRECIP IS
NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DECREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE OTHER BIG WEATHER STORY WITH HIGHS
RUNNING UPWARDS OF 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
RECENTLY. IF THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACTUALLY OCCUR, IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME TEMPS HAVE FAILED
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL SINCE EARLY MARCH (MARCH 5TH).

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT GIVING WAY TO A
RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY...WHICH WELL AND TRULY USHERS IN THE SPRING SEASON ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET IS
STILL BEING SHOWN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE RUNS (75-80KT)...WINDS LOOK
TO BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL BY SUNDAY MORNING THUS AIDING IN MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA DESERTS...AS WELL AS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENCY IN
DIGGING THE SYSTEM DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES BEING THE
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IF NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO TAP INTO...THUS MAKING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A RATHER NOTABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...BIAS CORRECTED AND CONS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A
WARM BIAS GIVEN HOW WARM WE HAVE BEEN LATELY. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS SHOWN BY THE KLAS
TDWR...IT APPEARS THAT DRAINAGE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
RETURNING TO THE TERMINAL FOR THE TIME BEING WITH SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT
AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS STILL EXPECTED. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE 14-15Z TIMEFRAME THIS MORNING...BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY EAST
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 8KT. ANOTHER
PUSH OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT OR AROUND 0Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY OVERTAKEN KVGT AND WILL
WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TO KHND LATER THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AT THESE SITES WILL GIVE WAY TO SPEEDS AOB 8KT
BY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND TO GIVE WAY TO
LIGHTER NORTHERLY WIND BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS AOB 8KT AT
ALL TAF SITES. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST AND
INCREASE BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 10-20
KTS AND GUSTS 25-30 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE OWENS VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM...SALMEN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER