Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER POINT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY ELONGATE AND TRANSITION INTO
AN OPEN TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH THIS ORIENTATION IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS A CLASSIC CLOSED LOW
LIFTING FROM LOS ANGELES TO LAS VEGAS...THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE BROAD UPWARD FORCING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING
MOISTURE UP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.0-1.25 INCHES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION
WILL BE 20-30 MPH TO THE NORTH...BUT LOCALIZED TRAINING CELLS ARE A
POSSIBILITY IN THIS PATTERN.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH OPENS UP AND LIFTS AWAY. THIS BREAK WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DIVES OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY. SUBSTANTIAL
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR DYNAMIC FORCING TO LIFT IT
AND GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH
LIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
LESS PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE AND IT IS IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHICH AREAS WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING EACH 6
HOUR PERIOD AND WHICH WILL NOT. THUS...POPS OF 60-70 PERCENT ARE
ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE CAN CONFIDENTLY GO FOR NOW. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM A HALF-INCH TO ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN EXCEPT IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SIERRA WHERE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES IS PROBABLE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS PRIMARILY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY. NOT THE COLDEST OF SYSTEMS
WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING AT OR ABOVE 9500-10000 FEET DURING THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER RIDGING.
&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
LAS VEGAS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DATE          VALUE/YEAR
-----------------------------
10/15         70/1950
10/16         66/2010*
10/17         67/1991

* TIE FROM PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO AROUND 5-
6K FEET AND POTENTIALLY LOWER VSBYS TO 5SM. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 5-7 MPH...BUT WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CIGS/VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER
AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO, INYO, SOUTHERN NYE
AND WESTERN CLARK COUNTIES. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOHAVE, NORTHEAST CLARK AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL MONDAY
WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE.  CIGS WILL MAINLY BE 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA OTHERWISE 10K-14K FEET. VSBY MAY BE
REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO TREND TOWARD
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE OWENS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM....PIERCE
AVIATION.....GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
346 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W TWENTYNINE PALMS    34.14N 116.09W
10/15/2015                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAYS 62 BETWEEN
            LEAR AND LUPINE AVE. ROAD CREWS CLEARING
            DEBRIS.

&&

CO

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