Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Las Vegas, NV

809 
WGUS75 KVEF 292248
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
348 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

CAC071-292345-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-150729T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
348 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM PDT FOR
SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 345 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE LANDERS AREA AND EAST TO 
TWENTYNINE PALMS. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING. THE PUBLIC REPORTED A 
FOOT OF WATER ACROSS SOME ROADWAYS IN THE LANDERS AREA. THE STORMS 
ARE NOW BUILDING OVER THE TWENTYNINE PALMS AREA AND HIGHWAY 62 NEAR 
AT TWENTYNINE PALMS. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND WATCH FOR 
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON ROADS...IN NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND LOW
LYING AREAS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROAD OR ENTER A FLOOD
CHANNEL. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN! REPORT FLOODING TO THE LAS VEGAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 11646 3416 11647 3421 11644 3426 11644
      3432 11648 3436 11641 3440 11640 3438 11605
      3412 11607 3412 11627

$$

JS

261 
WGUS75 KVEF 292346
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
446 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

CAC071-292355-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-150729T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
446 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
POSE A THREAT. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE AS WATER RECEDES 
AND CLEANUP EFFORTS CONTINUE.

LAT...LON 3411 11646 3416 11647 3421 11644 3426 11644
      3432 11648 3436 11641 3440 11640 3438 11605
      3412 11607 3412 11627

$$

JS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY THEN
BEGIN TO DECREASE IN MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOJAVE
NATIONAL PRESERVE IN NORTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER
NOON. ALSO MONITORING STORMS IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AROUND
BARSTOW. CONFIDENT THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY EVENING
AS THEY ENCOUNTER LESS MOISTURE. LEFT POPS OUT LAS VEGAS VALLEY BUT
WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL OF ANY OUTFLOW WIND COMING FROM
THOSE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH.

A FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS GOING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT IN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS FORECAST THE REMAINING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY. A LOBE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING NORTHWEST OVER INYO COUNTY. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT EXPECTED TO SHIFT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. CONVECTION WILL BE TIED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAKING IT INTO LAS
VEGAS TOMORROW EVENING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA WILL
FINALLY OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH AGAIN COULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS STARTING TO SHOW A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE
SATURDAY. DID NOT DECREASE POPS WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT IF THAT TREND
CONTINUES WE COULD START LOWERING POPS IN THE WESTERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THE MODELS DO
NOT REALLY SHOW MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE HIGH CENTER WITH TIME BUT
THEY ARE HINTING AT THE FLOW MAYBE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME.
SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS TREND I WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED POPS A TOUCH IN THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LOWERED POPS
A BIT MORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IF YOU BELIEVE THE MODELS
THERE MAY NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CWA BY TUESDAY BUT AS WE
HAVE MENTIONED BEFORE...THE MODELS FREQUENTLY GET TOO AGGRESSIVE
FLUSHING MOISTURE OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MAINLY MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK COUNTY. I KEPT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE GFS MEX GUIDANCE. I AM NOT READY TO BUY THE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING INDICATED BY THE ECE GUIDANCE WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES 5 PLUS
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF LAS
VEGAS BUT MAY AFFECT THE DAGGETT APPROACH CORRIDORS. CONFIDENCE LOW
IN OUTFLOW WIND FROM THOSE STORMS AFFECTING LAS VEGAS TERMINALS BUT
IT DOES BEAR MONITORING. EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS MOSTLY WEST AND SOUTH
OF LAS VEGAS. BEATTY, DAGGETT AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN AREAS SOUTH OF A KNID-KIGM LINE WITH SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AVERAGING AOA 10-12K FEET TONIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS. MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF A KNID-
KIGM LINE. ON THURSDAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SPREAD FURTHER NORTH INTO INYO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER