Flash Flood Warning 105, NWS Las Vegas, NV

308 
WGUS75 KVEF 232027
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
127 PM MST SUN AUG 23 2015

AZC015-232245-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0105.000000T0000Z-150823T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
127 PM MST SUN AUG 23 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...

AT 125 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE THUNDERSTORM NEAR 
VALENTINE HAS WEAKENED. AN AUTOMATED GAUGE IN THE AREA MEASURED 1.10 
INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR FROM THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT 
OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED IN THIS AREA...RUNOFF FROM 
EARLIER ACTIVITY WILL STILL TAKE PLACE AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
VALENTINE
ROUTE 66 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 77 AND 85.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN WASHES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND ON
ROADS. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOODED ROAD OR ENTER A FLOOD CHANNEL. TURN AROUND...DONT
DROWN! REPORT FLOODING TO THE LAS VEGAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA
FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 11355 3524 11355 3529 11383 3553 11383

$$

STACHELSKI

351 
WGUS75 KVEF 232156
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 PM MST SUN AUG 23 2015

AZC015-232205-
/O.CAN.KVEF.FF.W.0105.000000T0000Z-150823T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
256 PM MST SUN AUG 23 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS LONG ENDED IN THE VALENTINE AREA...AND FLOODING 
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT. 

LAT...LON 3552 11355 3524 11355 3529 11383 3553 11383

$$

STACHELSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
847 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE OWENS VALLEY AND PARTS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY WHERE SMOKE
FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES WILL DRIFT TOWARDS. OTHERWISE...SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND AGAIN
MONDAY BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLOW DRYING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...PW VALUES DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT
THERE DOES REMAIN A SHALLOW POOL OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MOHAVE COUNTY EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST
UTAH. 12Z LAS VEGAS SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP CONVECTION. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.

SHIFT IN WINDS ALOFT NOW TAKING MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH
FIRE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD BISHOP AND CENTRAL NEVADA. BISHOP
OBSERVATION HAS BEEN BETWEEN 5 AND 8 MILES THIS MORNING. THE
VISIBILITY SHOULD APPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER IT STILL
WILL REMAIN HAZY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...130 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES BURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AGAIN TODAY IMPACTING PARTS OF THE OWENS
VALLEY AND BISHOP AREAS AS WELL AS PARTS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING MONDAY AND THEN ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. BY MONDAY...LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPER PLUME OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT WEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL BUT WELL
DEVELOPED INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...AND EXTREME EASTERN CALIFORNIA. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD FOR THIS AREA MONDAY AND A STRAY STORM OR
TWO COULD EVEN DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS FAR SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY BY
LATE IN THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM ARIZONA. WITH FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST MID LEVELS...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15 DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF RICH MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH IT.
I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY WE COULD GET CLOUDED OVER MUCH
OF THE DAY WHICH WOULD IN TURN LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT
CAN BE REALIZED AND PUT A DAMPER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THATS NOT SOMETHING FORECAST MODELS RESOLVE WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
INTO THE 1.25-1.75 RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN BAKER CALIFORNIA AND
LAS VEGAS...IT WONT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING.

WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TUESDAY...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN. THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE DOES SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF
STORM MOTION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS ARE PRESENT IN THE 500-
700MB LAYER...BUT TRAINING STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN. WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE SHIFTS.  WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE LIKELY IN
PLACE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
COLORADO RIVER AND DEATH VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A VORT MAX WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS ARE KEEPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
AND SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF A TWENTY NINE PALMS TO TONOPAH LINE WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY BUT
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR AT LEAST EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY BUT
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS WITH EASTERLY COMPONENTS EXPECTED MUCH OF
THE DAY. A PUSH OF STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE 23Z-01Z TIMEFRAME WHEN WINDS OF 9-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 3Z. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS EXPECTED AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE ARE LIKELY NEAR BISHOP AND THE OWENS VALLEY
THANKS TO SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF KIGM THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER