Dust Storm Warning 6, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
149 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LESS STORM COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO TYPICAL SEASONAL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOHAVE, FAR SOUTHERN
CLARK, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO POP ACROSS
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THESE WERE THE FAVORED AREAS FOR
TODAY AND EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WHICH IS ALSO
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP AND WHAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DO WORKING WITH A VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS
MENTIONED IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE
TO MOVE SOME OF THE SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY CONVECTION TOWARD THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE HIGH
PRECIP EFFICIENCY, WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 14KFT, K INDEX IN THE
30S, PW OF OVER AN INCH, AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER RH OF 40-50 PERCENT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF
THE AREA, BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY. BY
SUNDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, ENDING ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND WE DRY OUT, TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SUNDAY WILL BE
THE HOTTEST DAY WITH HEAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY. BASED ON JUST
TEMPERATURES, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LOOKS GOOD. BUT ALSO, THE
HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S MAYBE 40S DURING
THE AFTERNOON WOULD CREATE A HEAT WE WOULD CERTAINLY FEEL, WHICH WE
HAVE NOT HAD FOR A WHILE. IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH, SATURDAY WILL BE
WARMING NICELY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED,
WHICH WILL CREATE A MULTI-DAY COMBINED HOT STREAK THAT MAY TAKE A
TOLL ON THE BODY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SO, WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING AS IS.

AFTER MONDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE, WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND THAT THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND, WITH READINGS GETTING BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE WINDS A BIT, BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BRING
ERRATIC WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY. MAINLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AOA 15KFT WITH PERIODS OF 10KFT CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT IN
AREAS IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAINLY EAST OF A KDAG TO
KDRA TO KELY LINE. WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

DISCUSSION...PADDOCK
AVIATION.....BERC

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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