Dust Storm Warning 5, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK ON IN ENDING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA HELPING IGNITE A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND SHIFT WEST INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MOHAVE
COUNTY ALERT STATION IN THE SOUTHERN HUALAPAI MTNS RECORDED TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES. STORMS MOVING IN VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.75 INCHES. FLASH
FLOODING PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

A SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE
AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AIR MASS
NOT AS MOIST OR UNSTABLE THAT FAR NORTH SO PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

HRRR AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOST THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING SO MADE NO CHANGE TO OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH IS
VALID UNTIL 8 PM PDT/MST. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE WATCH INTO FRIDAY
BUT DECIDED AGAINST THAT. WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT TONIGHT AND
LET MID-SHIFT OR MYSELF TOMORROW CONSIDER THE NEED OF A WATCH.

AGAIN MADE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIODS AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ADVERTISING A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREADING INTO
THE VALLEYS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH IT POTENTIALLY
BEGINNING FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE NEVADA AND ARIZONA ZONES SUNDAY. THIS DEPENDS ON THE
TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TRANSLATING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT POPS
IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE FOR NOW TO COVER FOR THIS SCENARIO...WITH
FURTHER UPDATES EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON HOW CONSISTENT OR NOT
CONSISTENT FUTURE GUIDANCE IS IN HANDLING THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE.

MONDAY...DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION AND SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE THAT IS IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE CALIFORNIA ZONES. DESPITE THIS...THE 00Z
ECMWF DEPICTS ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA...YIELDING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NEVADA AND ARIZONA ZONES.
THIS...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE IN SCOURING OUT MOISTURE THIS TIME OF YEAR WAS TAKEN
INTO CONSIDERATION...AND MINIMUM CHANGES TO POPS WERE MADE FOR
MONDAY FOR THE TIME BEING. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS A SHORTWAVE FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SWEEPS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. THERE ARE HINTS IN GUIDANCE OF LOW GRADE MOISTURE
MAKING A RETURN BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST
AND PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WISE...GIVEN THE MOISTURE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WARMEST DAYS
LIKELY COMING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
FILTERING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHEAST OR EASTERLY
COMPONENT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS AT KLAS TONIGHT, THE BEATTY, DAGGETT
AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. ANY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS COULD IMPACT WINDS
AT THE AIRPORT COMPLEX. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
13K FEET AT KLAS. WINDS TONIGHT AWAY FROM ANY SHRA/TSRA OR OUTFLOW
SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5-10 KTS.
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR FRIDAY WITH WINDS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z WITH STRONGEST
STORMS IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ESMERALDA COUNTY.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AS WELL AS CIGS AND VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR
LOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10K-15K FEET. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
131 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JOSHUA TREE             34.13N 116.32W
07/30/2015                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHP HAS REPORTED ROADWAY FLOODING FROM RICE AVE WEST
            THROUGH JOSHUA TREE WITH WATER COVERING THE ROADS IN
            SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON HIGHWAY 62.

&&

ASG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
244 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW TWENTYNINE PALMS  34.12N 116.09W
07/30/2015  M1.00 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 INCH MEASURED IN THE
            PAST 30 MINUTES. BACKYARD FLOODING
            OCCURRING, AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
337 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE HAVASU CITY        34.48N 114.32W
07/30/2015                   MOHAVE             AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 POWER LINES DOWN IN LAKE HAVASU CITY AND
            SEVERAL POWER OUTAGES INCLUDING SEVERAL
            TRAFFIC LIGHTS THAT ARE OUT ALONG HIGHWAY
            95.

&&

SC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
456 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S LAKE HAVASU CITY    34.45N 114.32W
07/30/2015                   MOHAVE             AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            6 INCHES OF WATER OVER THE ROADWAY AT
            JAMAICA BLVD S. AND LAKE HAVASU AVE.

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
515 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE TWENTYNINE PALMS  34.17N 116.04W
07/30/2015                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FIRE REPORTS MULTIPLE
            FLOODED HOMES IN THE 74000 BLOCK OF DIAMOND
            BAR ROAD.

&&

SC