Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
207 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015

ZONAL UPPER FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
NOSE OF 90KT JET STREAK APPROACHING THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHWESTERN SD AND CUMULUS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S...WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION...WHILE
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH...ALBEIT LIGHT...RESULTS
IN SOME THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH
EXCELLENT 0-6 KM SHEAR...SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP...BUT CAPE IS NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE AT 1500 J/KG. NEAR-TERM MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT
ON CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND SOUTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER CENTRAL SD SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MLCAPE VALUES WILL
RISE NEAR 3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
CAP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THERE IS LESS CIN AND
STRONGER FORCING. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WESTERN SD
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE LOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015

SEMI-FLAT PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHRA TS AS
SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. CERTAINLY NOT
A WASH OUT. HOWEVER...TIMING OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW PRECLUDE FAVORING ANY DRY PERIODS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GROWING INDICATIONS FOR MASSIVE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING PER EASTERN
PAC TOUGHING...WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN NOAM. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT WARMER AND DRIER CONDS BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE
REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL NW
FLOW IMPULSES AFFECTING THE FA. THIS WOULD FAVOR A WESTERN BIAS TO
ANY LARGE SCALE RIDGING...ESP GIVEN ONGOING MOIST SFC CONDS WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT A POSITIVE FEEDBACK MECHANISM. RETAINED NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS ALTHOUGH DID TREND DRY MONDAY AND SAT
WHERE THE STRONGEST INDICATIONS FOR DEEP LAYER RIDGING EXISTS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMER WEATHER LOOKING ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
610 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-211300-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-HAAKON-FALL RIVER-SHANNON-
JACKSON-BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-
NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
610 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH
A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
705 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S DUPREE              44.95N 101.59W
06/20/2015  E60 MPH          ZIEBACH            SD   PUBLIC

&&

MCKEMY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
718 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             5 NW FAITH              45.07N 102.11W
06/20/2015  E1.00 INCH       PERKINS            SD   PUBLIC

&&

MCKEMY