Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
346 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LYING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE TROF OVER NORTHEAST WY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN
NEB ...WITH A STRONGER WAVE OVER EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO. KUDX RADAR
SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CUSTER AND NORTHERN
SHANNON COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHWARD. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
NOTED WITH THESE STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY...MOVING
NORTHWARD. SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S...60S
OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR WESTERN SD AS WELL. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. SUPERCELL MOTION IS PROJECTED TO BE VERY SLOW...5
MPH OR LESS...AT LEAST FOR RIGHT MOVERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED...BUT SATURATED SOILS IN MANY AREAS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LOT OF RUNOFF IF THEY DEVELOP. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS AREA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN BANDS OF PCPN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE
SOME DIURNAL/TERRAIN INDUCED ACTIVITY...BUT IT WILL BE MUCH LESS
ACTIVE THEN RECENT WEEKS. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES SUPPORTING HIGH
POPS AND ACTIVE SHRA/TSRA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

AREAS MVFR CIGS/LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHWEST SD. A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES DUE TO STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS/HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST WY...THE
BLACK HILLS AREA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. WITH SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE
AREA AND RIVERS AND CREEKS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO CAUSE FLOODING ALONG
RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SDZ012-024>031-041-
     042-072>074.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
HYDROLOGY...26

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
139 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

SDZ027-029-041-042-WYZ058-052045-
SHANNON SD-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS SD-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS SD-
FALL RIVER SD-WESTON WY-
139 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHANNON...FALL RIVER...
SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN WESTON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
MDT...

AT 139 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PROVO
TO 8 MILES EAST OF ARDMORE TO NEAR SLIM BUTTE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS...PINE RIDGE...EDGEMONT...OGLALA...PORCUPINE...KYLE...
MANDERSON...WOUNDED KNEE...ORAL...OELRICHS...SMITHWICK...PROVO...
RUMFORD...SHARPS CORNER...ARDMORE...COTTONWOOD SPRINGS DAM...
ANGOSTURA RESERVOIR...COLD BROOK RESERVOIR...SLIM BUTTE AND MAVERICK
JUNCTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4301 10405 4350 10406 4352 10416 4353 10415
      4346 10314 4348 10211 4300 10237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 213DEG 32KT 4309 10400 4300 10349 4304 10275

HELGESON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
247 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

SDZ027-029-030-041-042-074-052145-
SHANNON SD-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS SD-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS SD-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS SD-FALL RIVER SD-CUSTER CO PLAINS SD-
247 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHANNON...NORTHERN
FALL RIVER AND SOUTHERN CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 247 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EDGEMONT TO NEAR ORAL TO
NEAR MANDERSON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS...EDGEMONT...DEWEY...MANDERSON...ORAL...BUFFALO GAP...
PRINGLE...SMITHWICK...PROVO...RED SHIRT...SHARPS CORNER...
ROCKYFORD...ARGYLE...COTTONWOOD SPRINGS DAM...ANGOSTURA RESERVOIR...
COLD BROOK RESERVOIR...MAVERICK JUNCTION...WIND CAVE VISITORS
CENTER...WIND CAVE NATIONAL PARK AND SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4353 10405 4368 10317 4361 10234 4321 10237
      4323 10322 4316 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 191DEG 18KT 4327 10384 4337 10324 4330 10244

HELGESON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
349 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

SDZ012-025-WYZ057-052230-
NORTHERN FOOT HILLS SD-BUTTE SD-WYOMING BLACK HILLS WY-
349 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...
SOUTHWESTERN BUTTE AND EASTERN CROOK COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 348 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BEULAH...OR 7 MILES WEST OF SPEARFISH...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN SPEARFISH AND EAST OF BEULAH.

THIS INCLUDES...
 INTERSTATE 90 IN SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 9.
 INTERSTATE 90 IN WYOMING NEAR MILE MARKER 207.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4467 10403 4454 10386 4446 10397 4449 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 202DEG 9KT 4452 10401

HELGESON