Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Tucson, AZ

772 
WWUS55 KTWC 022030
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

AZC019-022045-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-150902T2045Z/
PIMA AZ-
130 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 129 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VAIL...MOVING 
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3191 11049 3190 11070 3214 11077 3217 11046
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 175DEG 11KT 3203 11061 

$$

FRENCH

551 
WWUS55 KTWC 022047
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
147 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

AZC019-022056-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-150902T2045Z/
PIMA AZ-
147 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL 
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3191 11049 3190 11070 3214 11077 3217 11046
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 175DEG 11KT 3203 11061 

$$

FRENCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  WE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A WEAK
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS.
WITHIN THIS FLOW WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER...TO GO ALONG WITH PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WITHIN THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW THERE ARE A FEW
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THAT SHOULD ASSIST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY.  THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING LOOKS BETTER THAN IT HAS IN A FEW DAYS ONCE WE WORK OFF THE
MORNING LOWER LEVEL INHIBITION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING PWS NEAR
1.5 AND CAPES OF AT LEAST 1500 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE WE GET THE CONVECTION TO FIRE OFF WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
TRAINING ECHOES ESPECIALLY OVER AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RUNOFF ISSUES.  THIS TYPE OF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCES WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF THE CONVECTION.  OVERALL A WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED TODAY.  WATCH FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS AND
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL.  THE OUTFLOWS MAY
CREATE SOME DUST ISSUES IN PORTIONS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES IF
THE OUTFLOWS GET TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE RAIN CORES.  CERNIGLIA

REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION MOSTLY FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THURSDAY...AND WITH A SECOND IMPULSE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE PERIOD THAN TODAY.  THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA THE LAST 3 DAYS ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
TO BE ABOUT 12 HRS EARLIER NOW.  EVEN BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER ELEVATED RISK FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY AND
STRONG ORGANIZED OUTFLOW.

AFTER THAT DETAILS BECOME LESS CLEAR...HOWEVER IN GENERAL WE WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FAVORABLE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EACH DAY HAVING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WE CONTINUE
TO IMPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM OUR SEPTEMBER TROPICAL SEEDING
ZONE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. MEYER

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
LAYERS 8-12K FT AND BKN-OVC LAYERS ABV.  STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY
BE TO THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TONIGHT.
 AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.  TYPICAL T-STORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER
STORMS PUSHING OVER 50 MPH.  STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ABOUT 10-15 MPH.  THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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