Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Tucson, AZ

038 
WWUS55 KTWC 252045
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

AZC019-252100-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-150825T2100Z/
PIMA AZ-
145 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 144 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR GREEN VALLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...GREEN VALLEY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND 
VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE 
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS 
QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 11091 3180 11114 3203 11112 3204 11084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 173DEG 12KT 3189 11106 

$$

673 
WWUS55 KTWC 252105
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

AZC019-252114-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-150825T2100Z/
PIMA AZ-
205 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3180 11091 3180 11114 3203 11112 3204 11084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 187DEG 16KT 3189 11106 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
955 AM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN OCCUR STARTING THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH PERHAPS NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED IN NWRN
SONORA NW OF HERMOSILLO...AND ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TWIST
NEAR GLOBE AZ. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S...AND 25/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE
WAS 1.73 INCHES. THE 25/12Z KTWC SOUNDING ALSO DEPICTED FAIRLY STOUT
GENERALLY SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.

25/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SEVERAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY AROUND 19Z. FAIRLY
QUICK NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST STORM MOTIONS SHOULD THEN OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AS PER THESE SOLUTIONS.

HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S. THUS...SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SHOWERS/
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE FAIRLY FAST STORM MOTIONS SHOULD MITIGATE
THIS THREAT. A BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST OR SO MAY OCCUR...BUT THIS
THREAT ALSO APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS MON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY TO 40 KTS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
THEN OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYING TREND WILL
PRODUCE A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/...BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SHOULD BE OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PW'S EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 INCH TO THE EXTREME EAST AND 1.4-1.5 OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS AND 1.5-1.7 FOR THE WEST. SO...POPS AGAIN SCATTERED IN
NATURE FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHERE JUST ISOLATED. A
SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH RETROGRADES TO A POSITION NEARLY OVERHEAD AND
THIS CONTINUES ON SATURDAY. PW'S PROGGED TO BE 1.0 INCHES EAST...1.2
CENTRAL AND 1.4 WEST. THAT SAID...LOOKING AT MAINLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END MAINLY MOUNTAIN STORMS BOTH DAYS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HIGH BECOMES ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL BAJA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
AND MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY BY MONDAY...MAINLY EAST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...
THEN NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS AROUND 4 TO 8 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAYS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

AZZ503-504-252115-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
130 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MST...

AT 129 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GREEN VALLEY AREA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREEN VALLEY...SAHUARITA...EAST SAHUARITA AND SUMMIT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO MINOR STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 11089 3178 11110 3203 11112 3204 11079
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 187DEG 16KT 3185 11099