Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Tucson, AZ

652 
WWUS55 KTWC 262202
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
302 PM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

AZC023-262215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150626T2215Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
302 PM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 300 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST NEAR 5 MPH 
AND IS CURRENTLY OVER STATE ROUTE 82. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIO RICO SOUTHEAST...KINO SPRINGS AND LOCHIEL THE NOGALES AIRPORT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 11095 3154 11071 3138 11058 3133 11063
      3133 11087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 083DEG 4KT 3143 11075 

$$

CERNIGLIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
140 PM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP
TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY INTO THE GILA MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE STORMS PUSH TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND ABOUT 1.3 INCHES OF PWAT. RESIDUAL VALLEY CIN WILL LIKELY
BE OVERCOME DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. AS MENTIONED IN THE
MORNING DISCUSSION...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A BIT IN THE TUCSON
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS
WILL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT THE
BLOWING DUST THREAT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TUCSON DUE TO OUTFLOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SUSTAINED
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS IS A FAVORABLE MONSOON
PATTERN FOR US...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE JUNE. FOR SATURDAY...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY TRY TO PUSH FARTHER WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
DESERTS AND LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL GREATER DUST THREAT THAN TODAY.
WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NORTH AND WEST OF
TUCSON INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY EVENING.

WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO REALLY HANG OUR HAT ONTO. THUS...EXPECT WEAK SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES THAT THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PICKING UP
ON TO LARGELY DRIVE OUR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE WHICH DAYS
ARE MORE ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLD-SCTD TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY E AND S OF KTUS THRU 27/06Z WITH
SCT-BKN080 BKN-SCT120.  BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.  TSRA/SHRA DIMINISHING AFT 27/06Z AND
BECOMING SCT080 SCT-BKN120.  CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AFTER 27/18Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK.  INITIAL THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DRY LIGHTNING UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
ENTRENCHED THIS WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY
COMMON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.  OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
147 PM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

AZZ503-513-262115-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
147 PM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MST...

AT 146 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LOCHIEL...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINO SPRINGS...LOCHIEL AND PARKER CANYON LAKE.

LAT...LON 3149 11072 3146 11052 3143 11045 3142 11044
      3133 11043 3133 11095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 055DEG 14KT 3133 11068

CERNIGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
228 PM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

AZZ503-513-262215-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
228 PM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MST...

AT 226 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KINO SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. A SHORT PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NOGALES...KINO SPRINGS AND LOCHIEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 11109 3155 11069 3137 11054 3133 11060
      3133 11108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 055DEG 5KT 3141 11071

CERNIGLIA