Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tucson, AZ

007 
WWUS55 KTWC 292143
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
243 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

AZC019-292215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-150629T2215Z/
PIMA AZ-
243 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 241 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LATEST 
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORMS IS LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL NEAR 
OR OVER KITT PEAK. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KITT PEAK AND WAS 
SLOWLY MOVING WEST. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SELLS...KITT PEAK...FRESNAL CANYON...ARTESA...PAN TAK...SAN ISIDRO...
COMOBABI...TOPAWA AND LITTLE TUCSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 11137 3173 11140 3179 11191 3209 11186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 095DEG 14KT 3188 11154 

$$

CERNIGLIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME...WITH A FEW
TO SCATTERED CUMULOFORM AND CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY 2-4 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE
TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED VERSUS THIS TIME SUN.

29/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.26 INCHES...OR ABOUT
0.20 INCH LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MUCAPE YIELDED A VALUE OF 963
J/KG...AND ELY FLOW PREVAILED IN THE 700-300 MB LAYER. SOME STORM
MOTION PARAMETERS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 29/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH 595 DM HIGH CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
GENERALLY ELY FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 700 MB.

VARIOUS NWP MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR PERHAPS AN HOUR OR SO LATER TODAY VERSUS
SUN...OR MAINLY IN THE 18Z-19Z PERIOD. THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND/OR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN
COCHISE COUNTY. GENERALLY WWD MOVING/PROPAGATING STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

A PARTICULARLY ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS...GUSTY OUTFLOWS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST ACROSS THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION AND WRN PIMA COUNTY. OTHERWISE
AND HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A FEW THUNDERSTORM
GENERATED GUSTS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD BE WEST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING... ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
MAINLY OF 40-45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PREVAIL WEST OF KTUS BY 30/04Z...THOUGH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA MAY CONTINUE ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. OUTSIDE OF TSRA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN
12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF COCHISE
COUNTY. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE WEST...AND
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY GENERATE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
126 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

AZZ503-504-513-292115-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
126 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MST...

AT 123 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WITH THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVING TO
THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A STRONGER STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TUBAC.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WITH A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DIRECTLY UNDER THE STORMS. WATCH FOR STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST ALONG INTERSTATE 19 SOUTH OF AMADO.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NOGALES...GREEN VALLEY...RIO RICO NORTHEAST...TUMACACORI-CARMEN...RIO
RICO SOUTHEAST...RIO RICO NORTHWEST...RIO RICO SOUTHWEST...TUBAC...
PATAGONIA...PATAGONIA LAKE...LOCHIEL...KINO SPRINGS...TUMACACORI...
RUBY...MADERA CANYON...RIO RICO...PENA BLANCA LAKE...ARIVACA LAKE...
AMADO AND ARIVACA JUNCTION.

LAT...LON 3141 11133 3187 11132 3179 11085 3133 11055
      3133 11108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 093DEG 8KT 3165 11095

CERNIGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
209 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

AZZ502>504-515-292145-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KITT PEAK AZ-
209 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
MST...

AT 207 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A GROUP OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR STATE ROUTE 286 AND THE BOBOQUIVARI
MOUNTAINS...MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WITH
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DIRECTLY UNDER THE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SELLS...KITT PEAK...THREE POINTS...FRESNAL CANYON...ARTESA...PAN
TAK...SAN ISIDRO...TOPAWA...LITTLE TUCSON AND SOUTH KOMELIK.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3200 11123 3168 11134 3167 11184 3190 11186
      3210 11173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 093DEG 11KT 3180 11157

CERNIGLIA