Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

181 
WWUS55 KTWC 162316
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
416 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2015

AZC009-011-162345-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150616T2345Z/
GREENLEE AZ-GRAHAM AZ-
416 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST
FOR SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 414 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
25 MILES EAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNCAN AND FRANKLIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND 
VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE 
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS 
QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3247 10907 3262 10958 3295 10940 3281 10906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 021DEG 22KT 3272 10923 

$$

867 
WWUS55 KTWC 162346
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
446 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2015

AZC009-011-162355-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150616T2345Z/
GREENLEE AZ-GRAHAM AZ-
446 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND 
MOVED SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3247 10907 3262 10958 3295 10940 3281 10906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 021DEG 22KT 3272 10923 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
345 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-50Z ECHOES ACROSS
GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE/EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AT 2240Z. KDUG
RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 35 KTS /40 MPH/ FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE WIND GUSTS THAT MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CRITERIA OF 50 KTS OR STRONGER
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION OF WIND GUST SPEEDS SHOULD BE IN
THE RANGE OF 40-45 KTS. AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING EAST OF
TUCSON...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS TUCSON AND
NOGALES. HAVE OPTED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED WELL WEST OF SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N/130W WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN CALIFORNIA
BY FRI. THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED VIA THE 16/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC
TO BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND MIDDAY SUN.
HAVE OPTED FOR DRY CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE VERY
HOT DAYTIME TEMPS.

THEREAFTER...THE GFS/ECMWF EXHIBIT SIGNATURES THAT DEPICT AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
MON...OR BY NEXT WED AT THE LATEST. THE ECMWF ARGUES FOR THE EARLIER
START OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH/
EASTERLY WAVE TO BE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND MON. THE GFS WAS LATER
WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH/ELY WAVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM NEXT WED. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING. POPS WERE THEN INCREASED TO DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON TUE.

HIGH TEMPS WED-MON ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE ONLY VERY MINOR DAILY
CHANGES...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. HAVE DEPICTED ABOUT 5 DEGS F OF COOLING
NEXT TUE...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 18/00Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL EAST-TO-SOUTH OF KTUS
INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS PERHAPS TO NEAR 45 KTS MAY
OCCUR. ANY -TSRA/-SHRA SHOULD END BY 17/06Z FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF KTUS...WITH A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL KTUS VICINITY EAST TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE EAST
OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO
15 PERCENT. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL THEN PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
213 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2015

AZZ509-510-162230-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN
MEADOW AZ-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ-
213 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GREENLEE AND CENTRAL
GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MST...

AT 211 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORENCI...OR 30 MILES NORTH OF
SAFFORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAFFORD...CLIFTON...MORENCI...THATCHER...PIMA...FORT THOMAS...
SOLOMON...ARSENIC TUBS...POINT-OF-PINES AND GUTHRIE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3264 10925 3297 11020 3342 10980 3327 10905
      3325 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 014DEG 13KT 3325 10956

CARLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
329 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2015

AZZ509-510-162330-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN
MEADOW AZ-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ-
329 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND CENTRAL
GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MST...

AT 324 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES NORTH OF SAFFORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WHILE STORMS ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING...THE OUTFLOWS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE THIRD
AND TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAFFORD...CLIFTON...MORENCI...THATCHER...PIMA...DUNCAN...FORT
THOMAS...SOLOMON...FRANKLIN...GUTHRIE AND SWIFT TRAIL JUNCTION.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3282 11006 3318 10993 3303 10905 3277 10904
      3258 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 010DEG 13KT 3299 10967

CARLAW