Hard Freeze Warning 3, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST WED NOV 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TODAY AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE IN SOME COLDER EASTERN
VALLEYS. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A
WEAKER SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUD MOVING OUT WITH THE TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA. WE'RE STILL SEEING JUST ENOUGH WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT IN EASTERN AREAS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER A COOL DAY WE WILL BE SET UP FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LESS WIND WITH MUCH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL RAPIDLY THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ULTIMATELY
SETTING US UP FOR WHAT SHOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS IN SOME EASTERN
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING WE
WILL SEE A MODEST EASTERLY ENHANCEMENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS AS NEAR-
SURFACE FEATURES TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT A BIT BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN
EASY CALL ON THE FREEZE EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...AND PROBABLY A
HARD FREEZE IN COLDEST EASTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE NEAR RECORD LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THOSE SAME VALLEYS ARE NOT A SLAM
DUNK. THAT'S STILL OUR BEST BET AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...AS WE
SHOULDN'T SEE THAT EASTERLY WIND KICK IN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

AFTER THAT...A ZONAL FLOW TO A BROAD BASED REGIONAL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY WARM
BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO BY FRIDAY.

ENSEMBLES AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FOCUSING IN ON A WEAKNESS IN THAT
FLOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A QUICK FOLLOW-UP
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WOULD THEN BRUSH BY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF TUCSON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS RETURNING TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY EAST
WINDS THURSDAY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...20-
FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

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