Blowing Dust Advisory 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF TUCSON DUE TO
OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ
ECHOES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS VALID 2045Z. OTHER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES WERE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTY...SRN GRAHAM COUNTY AND COCHISE COUNTY NORTH-TO-EAST OF
TUCSON. BASED ON VARIOUS 27/12Z NWP MODELS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST
TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS...A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WRN PIMA
COUNTY...THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION...THE TUCSON METRO AREA
/ESPECIALLY THE NWRN PORTION OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA/ AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.

GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL ELY STEERING
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING VORT TROUGH OVER SRN NEW MEXICO...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DOWNBURSTS THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO
OCCUR GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY MOIST PRECIP WATER VALUES. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING.

THEREAFTER...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN CONUS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO
GENERALLY BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/UTAH REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH A FAVORABLE ELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY
CYCLE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BASED ON THE 27/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC...AM UNABLE AT THIS TIME
TO DISCERN AN ESPECIALLY FAVORED DAY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR.

HAVE MADE SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...DAYTIME TEMPS THRU AT LEAST MID-WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD THEN
TREND PERHAPS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN
COVERAGE WILL BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY ALSO RESTRICT
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 1SM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS AN ENHANCED THREAT OF STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL STORM
MOTION WILL BE TO THE WEST FOR MOST STORMS WHILE SLOW MOVING STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. BEYOND THAT...MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION IN A GENERALLY EAST TO WEST
FLOW REGIME FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN WINDS OUTSIDE
THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST THIS
    EVENING FOR AZZ501-502-504-505.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA