Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY WORKING SOUTH INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AREAS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES AND ALSO ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM PAWNEE OKLAHOMA IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO NEOSHO IN
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LESSEN THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WHILE BECOMING MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS AND PRECIPTABLE WATER AMOUNTS HOLD NEAR
1.75 INCHES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...THE CURRENT SEVERE WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10PM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL RUNS HAVE INDICATED THE PRECIP OVER THE PANHANDLES JOINING
UP WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD 1
INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED...MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. THESE CONDITIONS COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON TOP OF RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE
NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO OZARK
ARKANSAS LINE...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

ALSO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS AND A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THUS...FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...WILL
ADJUST HOURLY POPS/WX AND QPF BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE/CURRENT
TRENDS AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS/WIND GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  70  55  82 /  80  80  10   0
FSM   73  79  60  80 /  60  90  30  10
MLC   70  74  60  80 /  60  90  20  10
BVO   61  71  51  82 /  80  70  10   0
FYV   67  70  53  77 /  80  90  20  10
BYV   66  68  54  77 /  80  90  30   0
MKO   65  70  56  78 /  80  90  20  10
MIO   61  69  53  82 /  80  80  10   0
F10   66  71  57  80 /  70  90  10  10
HHW   76  82  63  80 /  30  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
945 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BEGAN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO OZARK ARKANSAS.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO LESSEN. AN ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT DURING THE NIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TOWARD ONE INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BUT NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO RETREAT
BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1021 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

OKZ054-190345-
OSAGE OK-
1021 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 1045
PM CDT...

AT 1020 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF FAIRFAX...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAWHUSKA...HOMINY...FAIRFAX...WYNONA...TALLANT...PERSHING AND
NELAGONEY.

LAT...LON 3656 9674 3672 9664 3662 9615 3633 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 296DEG 28KT 3661 9661

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
213 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

OKZ054-055-060-061-067-190800-
TULSA OK-ROGERS OK-OSAGE OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-
213 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...WESTERN
ROGERS...TULSA...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 212 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF AVANT TO 3
MILES EAST OF KEYSTONE STATE PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TULSA...BROKEN ARROW...SAND SPRINGS...OWASSO...SKIATOOK...CATOOSA...
COLLINSVILLE...VERDIGRIS...SPERRY...OOLOGAH...RAMONA...AVANT...
TALALA...VERA...TURLEY AND GRAY.

LAT...LON 3658 9561 3606 9573 3607 9603 3608 9628
      3659 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 239DEG 46KT 3650 9603 3615 9620