Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
353 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
REGION...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS ALONG AND NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER 5 PM. WARMING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE MORNING PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF PAWNEE COUNTY TO NOWATA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ALSO
A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA...OVER THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SOUTH OF THE MORNING PRECIPITATION...OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S WILL HELP TO CREATE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO RETREAT
BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

OKZ054-182330-
OSAGE OK-
555 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 554 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SHIDLER TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF PONCA CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TOWARD 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHIDLER...BURBANK...ELGIN...GRAINOLA...FORAKER...PEARSONIA...SOUTHERN
KAW LAKE...WEBB CITY AND APPERSON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3700 9610 3658 9676 3658 9689 3660 9692
      3658 9698 3659 9706 3660 9704 3669 9706
      3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 244DEG 21KT 3684 9670 3665 9710