Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
OVERALL LOW CHANCES AND EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE
MENTIONING IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MADE A RUN AT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE RAISED POPS IN REACTION TO THIS
FROM ABOUT TULSA NORTHWESTWARD. CURRENTLY... EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF PRECIP SEEMS TO BE COMING TO A HALT... IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
HRRR AND RUC MODELS. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING RAPIDLY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS WELL... CONFIRMING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED ITS EASTWARD LIMIT.
THAT SAID... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RACING EASTWARD ACROSS OSAGE
AND PAWNEE COUNTIES... WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL JUSTIFY LEAVING THE HIGHER POPS IN
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT IN THE PROXIMITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACTIVITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY IMPACT BVO/TUL/RVS LATER THIS
MORNING. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE AT NERN OK SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
MLC/FSM AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
TSRA...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL INTO ERN OK THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN OK. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE FLIRTED WITH ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL FOREGO AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN MARGINAL VALUES EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE SHORT DURATION.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER WEST BY LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MOST CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL AN WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. UPPER HIGH TO
REMAINED POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME HEIGHT RISES NOTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND PER THE
GFS. LATER IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS AS
WAVE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WEAK NW FLOW. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS OBSERVED THE LAST WEEK GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 102 TO 106
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A LIMITED
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST UNSTABLE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
OCCURS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS SUPPORTED THE RECENT HOT WEATHER
WILL DRIFT WEST TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL
MODERATE SOME THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT. HEAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MONDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

OKZ065-301945-
OKFUSKEE-
218 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OKFUSKEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES...

AT 217 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CASTLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKEMAH...CASTLE...CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH AND MASON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 215 AND
231.

LAT...LON 3561 9628 3545 9608 3538 9609 3529 9624
      3529 9632 3551 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 324DEG 13KT 3550 9632

LACY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAGONER                 35.96N 95.37W
07/30/2015                   WAGONER            OK   STORM CHASER

            LARGE LIMB BROKEN OFF A TREE IN WAGONER. RELAYED BY
            BROADCAST MEDIA SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNT.

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

OKZ076-302045-
LE FLORE OK-
310 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 309 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HEAVENER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEAVENER...HEAVENER RUNESTONE STATE PARK AND HODGEN.

LAT...LON 3476 9470 3491 9466 3499 9445 3467 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 262DEG 7KT 3483 9457

LACY