Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 20, 2015Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Jul 20, 2015, 7:13 PM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 20, 2015, 7:13 PM CDT (00:13 UTC)
Expired
Jul 20, 2015, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
47 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 341 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2015-07-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1564 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2015-07-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 3 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1564 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1231 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
49 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 20, 6:49 PM CDT, 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 6:49 PM CDT, 24 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 4:44 PM CDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
444 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
444 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONT APPROACHES. A LIMITED RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST PRIMARILY WITH THE AFTERNOON
STORMS...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING...FLOOD
PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH SOME
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREATS...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 105 AND 112 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT ARE
UNAFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH IT. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR...WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS
ALSO EXISTING.

LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...BRINGING THE HEAT
BACK TO THE REGION. ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 5:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 20, 5:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 20, 5:50 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 20, 6:18 PM CDT, 55 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 20, 6:30 PM CDT, 43 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 20, 7:13 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
713 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

ARZ002-210100-
CARROLL AR-
713 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

AT 713 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GRANDVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...GREEN FOREST...URBANETTE...GRANDVIEW...
BLUE EYE...OAK HILL...PLEASANT RIDGE...DENVER AND COIN.

LAT...LON 3639 9372 3650 9377 3650 9330 3629 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 281DEG 32KT 3646 9360

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 20, 11:10 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSATulsa50 min
Jul 20, 11:56 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner3 hr
Jul 21, 12:18 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAWagoner42 min
Jul 21, 12:58 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa4 hr
Jul 21, 1:58 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOsage47 min
Jul 21, 2:09 AM CDTAreal Flood WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Sequoyah3 hr
Jul 21, 2:24 AM CDTAreal Flood WarningTSAOsage3 hr
Jul 21, 4:59 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa6 hr
Jul 21, 5:13 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSAAdair, Cherokee, LeFlore, Sequoyah3 hr
Jul 21, 5:21 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACreek, McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee4 hr
Jul 21, 2:55 AM CDTAreal Flood WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Sebastian3 hr
Jul 21, 2:58 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSASebastian47 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2015Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.