Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO FAR NE OK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP CLOSEST TO THE FRONT WILL CARRY A HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
CHANCES AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME LIMITED AGAIN AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES ENSUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  86  72  90 /  70  50  50  20
FSM   77  88  74  92 /  40  40  40  20
MLC   77  92  72  93 /  20  40  40  20
BVO   73  85  70  87 /  70  50  50  20
FYV   71  84  69  85 /  60  50  50  30
BYV   70  85  68  84 /  70  50  50  50
MKO   76  88  72  92 /  50  50  50  20
MIO   72  85  68  85 /  70  50  50  50
F10   76  88  72  92 /  50  50  50  20
HHW   75  95  75  95 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
104 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTH OF I40.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTH OF I40 .
	ONSET...EVENING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...URBAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL SEE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 TODAY...WITH ISOLATED VALUES
NEAR 112.

A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH FROM KANSAS
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA  AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL
BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT BEFORE VERY HOT WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

OKZ061-062-067-202045-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
320 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS...
SOUTHWESTERN MAYES AND NORTH CENTRAL WAGONER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

AT 320 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES WEST OF INOLA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INOLA AND TAIWAH.

LAT...LON 3614 9573 3624 9568 3628 9534 3604 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 271DEG 27KT 3616 9561

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

OKZ061-062-202100-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-
337 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ROGERS AND WEST
CENTRAL MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 337 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3
MILES WEST OF PRYOR...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRYOR...PRYOR CREEK...SPORTSMEN ACRES COMMUNITY AND SNOWDALE STATE
PARK.

LAT...LON 3628 9550 3638 9543 3638 9512 3620 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 275DEG 22KT 3631 9538

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

OKZ061-062-067-202115-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
344 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS...
SOUTHWESTERN MAYES AND NORTHERN WAGONER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 344 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
INOLA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROKEN ARROW...WAGONER...CHOUTEAU...INOLA...MAZIE AND MURPHY.

LAT...LON 3608 9574 3628 9550 3615 9512 3594 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 285DEG 38KT 3612 9550