Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 9, 2015McIntosh County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Jul 9, 2015, 5:09 PM CDT for McIntosh County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 9, 2015, 5:09 PM CDT (22:09 UTC)
Expired: Jul 9, 2015, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County McIntosh County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1039 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 812 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 170 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 163 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.6
Supercell composite: 4.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 9, 2:57 PM CDT, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 2:57 PM CDT, 2 hours 12 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL LET FFA ALONE AS IT IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z. EVENING SHIFT CAN EXTEND A SMALL PORTION IF
NECESSARY. ONCE THE PRECIP SHUTS OFF...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RAIN FOOTPRINT ERODES. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THOSE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
RIDGE TOWARDS MID WEEK MAY MOVE A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST...AND
MAY PLACE THE FAR ERN ZONES ON THE PERIPHERY OF INCREASED NW
FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE SOME...HOWEVER WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY BEYOND TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  90  72  92 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   72  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  90  73  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   70  89  70  91 /  40  10  10  10
FYV   68  88  69  89 /  70  10  10  10
BYV   68  88  70  89 /  60  10  10  10
MKO   71  89  72  90 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   70  89  71  90 /  80  10  10  10
F10   71  89  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  91  73  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>068-070-
     071.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....23

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 9, 4:45 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
445 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

...LIMITED SEVERE RISK WITH BRIEF TORNADIC POTENTIAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
    AREA...PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
	    ...MAINLY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 69 AND NORTH
           OF INTERSTATE 40.
    ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
    RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A HALF INCH TO NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
412..AND WILL CARRY AN ONGOING FLASH FLOODING RISK. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALONG THE
ARKANSAS MISSOURI BORDER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. GREATER POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES EXISTS IN
THIS AREA AS JUST ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE FRONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES TO 110 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 4:12 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

OKZ060-064-067-092200-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
412 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TULSA...WEST CENTRAL
WAGONER AND EAST CENTRAL CREEK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GLENPOOL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM
HAS ALSO SHOWN SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN TULSA...BROKEN ARROW...BIXBY...SAPULPA...JENKS...GLENPOOL...
COWETA AND LEONARD.

LAT...LON 3591 9603 3602 9604 3604 9571 3586 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 275DEG 18KT 3596 9597

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 4:12 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

OKZ066-067-070-092145-
MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
412 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WAGONER...
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND EAST CENTRAL OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

AT 412 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF BALD HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  STORM WAS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HASKELL...TAFT...BOYNTON...REDBIRD...CHOSKA AND JAMESVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3563 9587 3569 9587 3593 9556 3567 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 241DEG 27KT 3568 9582

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 4:15 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

OKZ067-068-070-092200-
MUSKOGEE OK-CHEROKEE OK-WAGONER OK-
415 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...
NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE AND WEST CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 414 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3
MILES NORTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM
HAS ALSO SHOWN SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUSKOGEE...FORT GIBSON...OKAY...TULLAHASSEE AND SEQUOYAH STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3592 9518 3569 9519 3569 9552 3587 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 260DEG 18KT 3577 9542

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 4:26 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

OKZ062-063-067>070-092215-
ADAIR OK-MUSKOGEE OK-CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-WAGONER OK-
426 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON...
SOUTHEASTERN MAYES...SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE...
SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

AT 425 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SALINA TO NEAR
MUSKOGEE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL
ROTATION.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUSKOGEE...TAHLEQUAH...WAGONER...JAY...FORT GIBSON...LOCUST GROVE...
SALINA...COLCORD...KANSAS...OKAY...HULBERT...OAKS...LEACH...SEQUOYAH
STATE PARK...PROCTOR...PEGGS...SCRAPER...ELDON...CHEROKEE LANDING
STATE PARK AND ROSE.

LAT...LON 3646 9461 3573 9482 3569 9544 3633 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 253DEG 42KT 3628 9519 3576 9535

Local storm report, Jul 9, 5:06 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND GST     TAHLEQUAH               35.92N 94.97W
07/09/2015  E60 MPH          CHEROKEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 50 TO 60 MPH ESTIMATED AT THE
            NSU CAMPUS IN TAHLEQUAH.

&&

JDS

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 5:09 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

OKZ065-071-092300-
OKFUSKEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-
509 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCINTOSH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 509 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DUSTIN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STIDHAM...VIVIAN...RAIFORD AND VERNON.

LAT...LON 3544 9569 3527 9561 3519 9598 3529 9598
      3529 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 251DEG 25KT 3525 9601

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 12:26 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Adair, Sequoyah	3 hr
Jul 9, 3:43 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	TSA	Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, McIntosh, Mayes and 10 more	15 hr
Jul 9, 6:37 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	4 hr
Jul 9, 8:04 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Adair	39 hr
Jul 9, 8:40 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware	34 hr
Jul 9, 10:20 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	4 hr
Jul 9, 10:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	46 min
Jul 9, 11:13 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	4 hr
Jul 9, 11:32 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Muskogee and 3 more	4 hr
Jul 9, 11:46 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes	4 hr
Jul 9, 12:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware	41 min
Jul 9, 12:28 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Ottawa	3 hr
Jul 9, 12:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	47 min
Jul 9, 1:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Rogers	49 min
Jul 9, 1:42 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	4 hr
Jul 9, 2:32 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner and 1 more	3 hr
Jul 9, 2:37 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Ottawa, Rogers, Washington	3 hr
Jul 9, 2:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	43 min
Jul 9, 3:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee	49 min
Jul 9, 3:28 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa, Rogers	12 hr
Jul 9, 3:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	42 min
Jul 9, 3:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner	36 min
Jul 9, 4:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	48 min
Jul 9, 4:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Muskogee	45 min
Jul 9, 4:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes	49 min
Jul 9, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Muskogee, Wagoner	37 min
Jul 9, 4:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Muskogee	12 min
Jul 9, 5:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	39 min
Jul 9, 5:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware	30 min
Jul 9, 5:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Delaware	42 min
Jul 9, 6:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	52 min
Jul 9, 1:34 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Carroll, Madison	3 hr
Jul 9, 8:51 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	61 hr
Jul 9, 1:56 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Franklin, Johnson, Logan	3 days
Jul 9, 2:14 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Carroll, Madison	4 hr
Jul 9, 5:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	67 min
Jul 9, 6:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	60 min
Jul 9, 6:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	68 min
Jul 9, 6:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.