Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
701 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. GREATER
CHANCES LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHILE SOME LOW CIGS/VIS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VFR
ACROSS THE CWA. SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THOUGH WITH LIMITED EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL KEEP TAF SITES DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROPAGATE
MORE SHOWERS / THUNDER.  MOST LIKELY AREA NATURAL
FIREWORKS  TONIGHT  SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR WHERE
PWA VALUES GREATER 1.75.  SOME..STRONG TO..SEVERE
STORMS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...AND SOME HEAVY
RAINERS AS WELL.

DAYLIGHT PORTION OF JULY 4TH MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER
INCREASING CHANCE THUNDER AFTER DARK SATURDAY AND
HIGHER CHANCES SUNDAY WITH MINOR WAVE.

AXIS OF H500 MB TROUGH CENTERED IN DEEP CANADA TO
SWING THROUGH PLAINS  MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS PARTICULARLY WET.

MAX TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER..ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS MORE THAN
COMPENSATES TO MAKE NOT SO COMFORTABLE WEATHER.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  72  89 /  20   0  30  50
FSM   70  90  71  90 /  50  20  20  50
MLC   70  89  73  90 /  50  10  40  50
BVO   65  89  68  89 /  20   0  30  40
FYV   64  85  65  87 /  40  30  20  40
BYV   64  84  66  86 /  30  10  10  30
MKO   68  89  71  89 /  30  10  30  60
MIO   65  88  68  89 /  30   0  20  40
F10   68  89  72  89 /  30  10  30  60
HHW   71  90  72  90 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
441 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
441 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
 	RISK...LIMITED.
    AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF I-44.
    ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED
ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF I-44. WIND SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND UP TO 70 MPH. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH DAYS. ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK STORMS AND LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CANADIAN                35.18N 95.65W
07/03/2015                   PITTSBURG          OK   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES DOWN IN THE CANADIAN AREA. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N MULDROW             35.42N 94.60W
07/03/2015                   SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS DOWN NORTH OF MULDROW. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND GST     MCALESTER               34.93N 95.77W
07/03/2015  M56 MPH          PITTSBURG          OK   ASOS

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
654 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N MULDROW             35.44N 94.60W
07/03/2015                   SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN NORTH OF MULDROW. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROLAND                  35.42N 94.51W
07/03/2015                   SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN ROLAND. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ARZ020-029-OKZ074>076-040115-
SEBASTIAN AR-FRANKLIN AR-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-HASKELL OK-
732 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...
SEBASTIAN...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN LATIMER...CENTRAL LE
FLORE...SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL AND SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTIES UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

AT 731 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF OZARK TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURNVILLE TO 4 MILES EAST OF MC CURTAIN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT SMITH...POTEAU...OZARK...STIGLER...CHARLESTON...GREENWOOD...
BARLING...POCOLA...HEAVENER...LAVACA...SPIRO...PANAMA...MANSFIELD...
WISTER...HACKETT...HOWE...ALTUS...HARTFORD...HUNTINGTON AND BONANZA.

LAT...LON 3537 9372 3542 9380 3531 9381 3532 9392
      3523 9392 3523 9403 3514 9403 3514 9414
      3506 9425 3497 9424 3493 9445 3483 9445
      3480 9494 3531 9515 3531 9432 3538 9414
      3545 9415 3546 9403 3563 9397 3548 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 314DEG 17KT 3548 9388 3516 9422 3516 9490

69

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