Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT SOME SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS
WELL... WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE
TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF STORMS IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN'T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
930 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
930 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTH OF I-40.
	ONSET...BY MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF I-40.
	ONSET...BY MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS ONGOING OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD MORNING. A LIMITED THREAT OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH MORE RAIN FALLING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVER INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE FLOOD
THREAT...HOWEVER...DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE LOCALIZED TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM AND SATURDAY WHEN THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
840 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OKZ067-070-270215-
MUSKOGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
840 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN WAGONER

AT 840 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHOSKA...TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...
OKAY...MUSKOGEE...JAMESVILLE AND TAFT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3600 9542 3576 9524 3564 9561 3574 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 239DEG 17KT 3573 9561

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1025 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OKZ054-059-064-270400-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
1025 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CREEK...SOUTHERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 1026 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
TERLTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OSAGE...JENNINGS...TERLTON...
HALLETT...CLEVELAND...WESTPORT...SILVER CITY AND WALNUT CREEK STATE
PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3637 9647 3628 9625 3604 9646 3612 9663
      3616 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 211DEG 20KT 3616 9650

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OKZ061-062-067-270415-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
1040 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...SOUTHERN ROGERS AND NORTHWESTERN WAGONER

AT 1041 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF INOLA TO 4 MILES WEST OF MAZIE...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...INOLA...CATOOSA...MAZIE AND CHOUTEAU.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3611 9516 3604 9543 3615 9576 3616 9576
      3616 9578 3617 9582 3618 9581 3624 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 254DEG 14KT 3617 9561 3610 9542

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OKZ054-059-060-064-270415-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK-
1045 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CREEK...SOUTHERN OSAGE...EASTERN PAWNEE AND WESTERN
     TULSA

AT 1045 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WESTPORT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WESTPORT...MANNFORD...WALNUT CREEK
STATE PARK AND KEYSTONE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3630 9617 3613 9614 3609 9643 3626 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 260DEG 21KT 3619 9634

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OKZ060-064-067-270515-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
1147 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CREEK...SOUTHERN TULSA AND NORTHWESTERN WAGONER

AT 1147 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BROKEN ARROW TO KIEFER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...
LEONARD...BIXBY...JENKS...GLENPOOL...BROKEN ARROW...COWETA...ONETA
AND KIEFER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3612 9578 3609 9558 3607 9557 3608 9551
      3606 9543 3588 9576 3591 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 270DEG 25KT 3608 9577 3595 9605