Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES INTO THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MORE DIFFICULT FOR FAR
NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG RED RIVER SOUTH OF MLC. EXPECT TRW AT MLC AROUND 4 PM. /SA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  61  81  65 /  60  70  10  50
FSM   81  64  81  66 /  50 100  20  40
MLC   78  62  80  67 /  80  80  20  60
BVO   81  59  80  62 /  30  50  10  40
FYV   78  61  78  62 /  30 100  20  30
BYV   80  61  79  63 /  30 100  30  30
MKO   78  61  80  65 /  60  90  20  50
MIO   79  61  79  62 /  30  70  20  50
F10   78  60  80  65 /  70  80  20  60
HHW   78  64  82  68 /  80  80  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER AND RAPID ONSET FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
        FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
SEVERAL BRIEF TORNADOES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS.
THE WET SOILS WILL MAKE DOWNED TREES HIGHLY LIKELY AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MOVE INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS PASSES YOUR LOCATION.

AN EQUALLY DANGEROUS THREAT WILL BE THE RAPID ONSET FLASH
FLOODING WHICH WILL DEVELOP AS THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WATER RISES WILL BE
RAPID AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN NOW TO ENSURE YOU
ARE IN AN AREA AWAY FROM POTENTIAL FLOOD WATERS.  WATER WILL
BE SLOW TO RECEDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MANY ROADS
MAY REMAIN FLOODED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
ONLY WORSEN ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.  LATER FORECASTS
WILL REFINE THE LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

OKZ073-075-252045-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
311 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN PITTSBURG AND WESTERN LATIMER

AT 312 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
HARTSHORNE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GOWEN...HARTSHORNE...HAILEYVILLE...
DOW...BACHE...ALDERSON...KREBS...BLOCKER...FEATHERSTON AND CROWDER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3514 9577 3511 9535 3505 9534 3468 9549
      3468 9551 3467 9552 3467 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 192DEG 30KT 3477 9557