Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HERE WE GO AGAIN. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST..AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA..AS WELL AS MORE
STORMS FORMING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER..FORE-TELL
A DARK AND STORMY  (AND WET) NIGHT...FOR EASTERN
OK AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  FLOOD WATCH
POSTED THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES IN 1.75-2.00  BALLPARK
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ULTRA EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
EXPECT ONE INCH RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE WIDESPREAD...
LOCAL AREAS TWO TO FOUR FROM LARGER REPEAT STORMS.

FORECAST DERIVED FROM LONG AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
WHICH DIFFER ON HEAVIEST PRECIP PLACEMENT.  SHORT
RANGE FAVORING SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE LONGER RANGE
FAVOR NORTHERN AREAS.

BULK OF THE PRECIP EXITS STAGE RIGHT WEDNESDAY AM.

NOT MUCH BREAK FROM RAIN WITH LOW POPS THURSDAY.
HIGHER POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER
RIPPLE ARRIVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOWER LEVEL FLOW. HOLIDAY WEEKEND NOT A
WASH-OUT...BUT FAR FROM DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  64  74  52 /  60 100  30  20
FSM   78  66  79  60 /  10  90  90  40
MLC   77  67  77  58 /  60 100  40  40
BVO   71  57  68  47 /  60 100  30  10
FYV   74  62  71  52 /  10  90  80  20
BYV   73  58  68  49 /  10  80  80  20
MKO   74  64  75  53 /  60 100  40  20
MIO   72  60  67  49 /  10 100  60  20
F10   74  65  75  53 /  60 100  40  20
HHW   79  68  78  61 /  40  80  70  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ELEVATED.
	ONSET...PRIMARILY LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW QUICK ONSET
OF FLOODING WITH ANY AREA OF HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY.  A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ060-066-067-070-192345-
MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
621 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND WESTERN WAGONER

AT 620 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER STONEBLUFF...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEONARD...STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...COWETA...ONETA
AND HASKELL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3615 9569 3602 9546 3576 9571 3586 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 213DEG 16KT 3588 9574