Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
227 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PV MAX MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THUS FAR ECHOES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
GET GOING. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY LIFT AND HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME
THE CAP AND AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT BY
MID AFTERNOON FROM NW AR DOWN INTO SE OK. THE STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME. WINDS ALOFT AT THE BASE
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SUGGEST SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY AT LEAST. THE TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE NOT ZERO...IS MUCH LESS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH VEERED FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR SHRINKING
HELICITY. THUS MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL/WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEARING THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WITH A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT FORTHCOMING.

AFTER A NICE DAY TO BE OUTDOORS ON FRIDAY...RAIN/STORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THRU THE PLAINS. A WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND...FORCING ANOTHER BOUNDARY DOWN INTO OUR REGION.

GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER WAVE IN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES WILL LIFT INTO THE PLAINS...BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS.

A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIVE IN FROM THE
PAC NW AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON
HOW THE DETAILS SHAKE OUT...THERE WOULD BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  69  48  73 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   47  72  49  75 /  40   0  10  10
MLC   46  70  48  72 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   39  69  44  73 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   40  67  45  69 /  20   0   0  10
BYV   42  67  45  71 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   44  69  48  73 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   39  69  45  71 /   0   0  10  10
F10   45  69  49  72 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   49  71  48  71 /  40   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1251 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1251 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...1 TO 3 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...1 TO 3 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON....A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR VINITA TO
OKMULGEE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE
AS THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THERE WILL
ALSO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER AND DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH BETTER CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
437 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

OKZ074>076-092200-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
437 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...NORTHERN LE FLORE AND NORTHEASTERN
     LATIMER

AT 437 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
KINTA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...LEQUIRE...KINTA...KEOTA...MILTON
AND BOKOSHE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3529 9476 3500 9473 3503 9527 3519 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 267DEG 37KT 3513 9513

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
441 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             N GOSHEN                36.10N 93.99W
04/09/2015  M1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. TIME IS RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

DMJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
443 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ARZ002-011-092215-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
443 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN MADISON

AT 444 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
WITHROW SPRINGS STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HARMONY...OSAGE...
DRYFORK...METALTON...RUDD...CONNOR...CABANAL...RULE...FORUM...
MARBLE...ALABAM...CLIFTY...ROCKHOUSE AND WITHROW SPRINGS STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3638 9347 3614 9335 3609 9378 3623 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 250DEG 36KT 3618 9377

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
444 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
04/09/2015  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

OKZ072-074-076-092230-
HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
458 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 457 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF COWLINGTON...2 MILES EAST OF MCCURTAIN...AND 10 MILES SOUTH OF
MILTON...ALL MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...COTTONWOOD...MCCURTAIN...KEOTA...
GANS...MULDROW...ROLAND...MOFFETT...POTEAU...SHADY POINT...
CAMERON...MILTON...PANAMA...BOKOSHE...ROCK ISLAND...SPIRO...
POCOLA...SCULLYVILLE...BRADEN...COWLINGTON...ARKOMA AND JENSON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3500 9445 3497 9489 3502 9493 3505 9493
      3506 9495 3514 9501 3537 9490 3550 9445
      3543 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 259DEG 39KT 3531 9479 3516 9492
          3502 9482