Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Tulsa, OK

816 
WWUS54 KTSA 090313
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1013 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

OKC061-077-091-101-111-121-090345-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-150509T0345Z/
HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
LATIMER OK-
1013 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
LATIMER...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE...
MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH AND WESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1009 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM COUNCIL HILL TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHECOTAH TO
QUINTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...BOYNTON...RENTIESVILLE...
  ENTERPRISE...WAINWRIGHT...LEWISVILLE...OKTAHA...KINTA...WARNER...
  PORUM...BRIARTOWN...WHITEFIELD...KEEFETON...SUMMIT AND STIGLER

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 244 AND 284.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 9561 3559 9522 3520 9503 3494 9554
      3521 9572 3539 9591
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 227DEG 40KT 3563 9564 3544 9542
          3511 9536

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

025 
WWUS54 KTSA 090323
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1023 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

OKC061-077-091-101-111-121-090345-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-150509T0345Z/
HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
LATIMER OK-
1023 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
LATIMER...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE...
MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH AND WESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1022 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM COUNCIL HILL TO 7 MILES WEST OF PORUM TO ROBBERS CAVE
STATE PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...LEWISVILLE...RENTIESVILLE...
  WAINWRIGHT...KINTA...PORUM...WHITEFIELD...BRIARTOWN...OKTAHA...
  WARNER...SUMMIT...KEEFETON AND STIGLER

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 244 AND 284.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 9561 3559 9522 3520 9503 3494 9554
      3521 9572 3539 9591
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 241DEG 31KT 3554 9561 3539 9536
          3506 9530

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CENTRAL OK THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST AR OVERNIGHT. AFTER SEVERAL HOURS THUNDER WIDESPREAD
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...THEN RECHARGE AND MORE THUNDER SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS REMAIN ONGOING TODAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT PRESENT...A WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND BACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEW
POINTS PREVALENT. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN AND FWD ARE INDICATIVE OF
A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MESOANALYSES SHOW A TONGUE OF
THIS INSTABILITY EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 35 AND
HIGHWAY 75 TO 69 CORRIDORS. AS SUCH...ONGOING ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA /ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX/ MAY
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE/SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS OPPOSED TO SIMPLY
THE EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE LOCAL WRF AND THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS LIKELY TO MAKE A MID TO LATE EVENING RUN ALONG THE RED
RIVER IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND ALSO ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE INCREASE IN
THE LOW LEVEL JET.

WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND HIGHLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE OVERLY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT IS BY NO MEANS ZERO IN OTHER PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

AS HAS BEEN SAID A LOT IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATURDAY/S SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE MOVING OUT BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...
EARLY TO MID MORNING...AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THERE. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING STORMS AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
LATER ROUND...A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BEGINNING AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR COULD LIMIT THE SEVERITY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A VEERED
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO
THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL FINALLY MAKE A PUSH TOWARD THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THIS SAME RISK PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE BOUNDARIES FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAY BE SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE IMPACT MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

ON THE RAINFALL FRONT...A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL MAY VERY WELL END UP BEING THE BIG STORY
FROM THIS EVENT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LEADS TO A COOL AND DRY PERIOD...BUT MOISTURE MAKES A
QUICK RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MORE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  79  68  78 /  80  80  70  80
FSM   69  81  66  79 /  70  80  60  80
MLC   68  78  69  76 /  80  80  70  80
BVO   65  78  65  78 /  80  80  70  60
FYV   67  77  64  74 /  70  80  60  80
BYV   66  81  65  76 /  70  70  60  80
MKO   68  78  66  76 /  80  80  70  80
MIO   65  80  66  77 /  70  80  70  80
F10   67  77  67  76 /  80  80  70  80
HHW   70  80  68  78 /  70  80  60  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

...CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING THRU THE WEEKEND...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...BUT WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD
FLOODING WILL BECOME POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION...A FEW ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THE INITIAL STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
VARYING DEGREES EACH DAY... WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE A DAY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY. THESE STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN ARKANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
A SEVERE WEATHER DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL MAKE FLOODING
LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED TO
BE ON SUNDAY.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE
CONSIDERABLY EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE
WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OVER OUR REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OKEMAH                  35.43N 96.30W
05/08/2015                   OKFUSKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL HOMES IN OKEMAH ARE BEING EVACUATED DUE TO QUICKY
            RISING WATER.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
904 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OKEMAH                  35.43N 96.30W
05/08/2015  M2.91 INCH       OKFUSKEE           OK   MESONET

            MESONET RAINFALL IN THE PAST HOUR.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             OKEMAH                  35.43N 96.30W
05/08/2015  E1.50 INCH       OKFUSKEE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

OKZ066-070-071-090315-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
950 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MCINTOSH

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OKMULGEE

AT 950 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
COUNCIL HILL...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MORRIS...ERAM...BALD HILL...
CHECOTAH...HITCHITA...COUNCIL HILL...WAINWRIGHT...BOYNTON AND
JAMESVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3582 9564 3579 9564 3577 9560 3544 9549
      3544 9572 3570 9602
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 159DEG 35KT 3552 9565

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
952 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OKEMAH                  35.43N 96.30W
05/08/2015  E4.50 INCH       OKFUSKEE           OK   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF ABOUT 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 2
            HOURS IN OKEMAH.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OKEMAH                  35.43N 96.30W
05/08/2015                   OKFUSKEE           OK   PUBLIC

            ROADS AND HOMES FLOODED IN OKEMAH.

&&

AEJ