Alert archive / Oklahoma / Flash Flood Watches in 2015

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 7, 201522 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood watch at May 7, 2015, 2:12 PM CDT for 22 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Arkansas. It took effect at May 7, 2015, 7:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2015, 2:12 PM CDT (19:12 UTC)
In effect from
May 7, 2015, 7:00 PM CDT
Expired
May 11, 2015, 3:49 AM CDT
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Flood severity
None
All 26 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-05-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 324 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-05-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 228 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
324 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-126 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
979 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
228 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
217 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

018 
WGUS64 KTSA 071912
FFATSA

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
212 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY 
   THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FF.A.0002.150508T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
212 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON... 
  CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND 
  WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...
  CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES... 
  MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OSAGE... 
  OTTAWA...PAWNEE...PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...
  TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON. 

* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN 
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON 
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING 
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER 
STORMS. 

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND AGAIN ON 
SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 INCHES. IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY. THE 
THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE 
THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS.    

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH
AREA...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
8 follow-up statements
502 
WGUS64 KTSA 080830
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-082100-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
   MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL... 
  LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA... 
  OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...OTTAWA...PAWNEE...PITTSBURG... 
  PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND 
  WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF 
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. 

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL TO
THE WEST TODAY...WITH THE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. IF THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.
THE THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
143 
WGUS64 KTSA 082024
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
324 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-090930-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
324 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL... 
  LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA... 
  OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...OTTAWA...PAWNEE...PITTSBURG... 
  PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND 
  WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
  EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
  OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO PARTS OF
  EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND
  OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
  LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
  FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BEGIN
  TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
  SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING.

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH
  SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. IF
  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED...FLASH FLOODING
  AND WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
975 
WGUS64 KTSA 090844
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-092130-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
344 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
   MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL... 
  LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA... 
  OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...OTTAWA...PAWNEE...PITTSBURG... 
  PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND 
  WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE 
  EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
  COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS 
  ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
  ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY
  LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
  INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
  DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS 
  THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. 

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE 
  THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.
  IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED...FLASH
  FLOODING AND WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
950 
WGUS64 KTSA 092027
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-100900-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL... 
  LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA... 
  OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...OTTAWA...PAWNEE...PITTSBURG... 
  PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND 
  WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
  SPREADING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH
  THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS
  A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
  BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
  THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING.

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH
  LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLASH
  FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO
  EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS
OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
617 
WGUS64 KTSA 100828
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-102130-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
328 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
   MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL... 
  LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA... 
  OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...OTTAWA...PAWNEE...PITTSBURG... 
  PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND 
  WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF TEXAS AND
  INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MID MORNING
  AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
  A COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS
  THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
  DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
  FRONT EXITS. 

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH 
  LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLASH 
  FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE 
  INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS
RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA... KEEP INFORMED...AND BE
READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
013 
WGUS64 KTSA 102051
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-110500-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL... 
  LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA... 
  OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...OTTAWA...PAWNEE...PITTSBURG... 
  PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND 
  WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF TEXAS AND
  INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
  FRONT THAT IS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
  HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE STORMS SHIFT
  EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH
  LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT AND
  POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH
  WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE UP TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND
PICKUPS. REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES
AND FLOODING IS THE LEADING CAUSE OF WEATHER RELATED DEATHS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS
RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA... KEEP INFORMED...AND BE
READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
679 
WGUS64 KTSA 110254
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

OKZ054>057-059>061-064>066-110400-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-CREEK-
OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...
VINITA...PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS
ENDED.

$$

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-058-062-063-067>076-
111200-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OTTAWA-MAYES-DELAWARE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-
MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...MIAMI...PRYOR...JAY...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...
MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...
POTEAU
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...
  MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...OTTAWA...PITTSBURG...
  PUSHMATAHA...SEQUOYAH AND WAGONER.

* UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL DIMINISH FROM
  WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE IN
  SOME PLACES. SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH
  FLOODING IS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING
  POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.

NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE UP TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND
PICKUPS. REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES AND FLOODING IS THE LEADING CAUSE OF WEATHER RELATED
DEATHS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS
RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA... KEEP INFORMED...AND BE
READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
546 
WGUS64 KTSA 110849
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
349 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015


ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-058-062-063-067>076-
111000-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-150511T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OTTAWA-MAYES-DELAWARE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-
MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...MIAMI...PRYOR...JAY...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...
MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...
POTEAU
349 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
ENDED. HOWEVER...AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at May 7, 12:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 12:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1220 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
BREAK IN THE STORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING
ACROSS SW OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT
PARTS OF EASTERN OK...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVIER CELLS. ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
THE WEST LATER TODAY MAY EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH A TREND TOWARD WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISSUING ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS NW ARKANSAS FOR LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORM WILL MOVE OUT IN
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND LEAVE STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. FOR LATER
AFTERNOON...WELL DEFINED WAVE IN WSW FLOW SEEN MOVING ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING. SOME
CLEARING AHEAD OF THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER AT
LEAST WESTERN OK AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN OK
BEFORE 00Z. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WE
CAN DESTABILIZE IN EASTERN OK. NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. REST OF
FORECAST GOOD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN AR
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL BE
STABILIZED FOR SOME TIME BEFORE STORMS AGAIN DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WHILE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING EITHER WITH
STORMS OR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGION. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER OREGON DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE DRY LINE AND PROGRESS TO THE
EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO
BE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MOST ACTIVE DAYS AS FAR AS
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE CONCERNED. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS AND BRINGING
IT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH
BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SUNDAY WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WILL MARCH ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE
2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECORDING
UPWARDS OF 7 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
AT SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MORE BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14
Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 1:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
 	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 69.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 69.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SOME
AS THEY APPROACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING
STORMS...WITH ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT. AN INCREASING CONCERN IS THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IS UNCERTAIN...RECENT RAINS WILL ALLOW FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY...AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY APPEARS TO THE BE A DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY INCLUDING LONG
TRACK TORNADOES. THESE STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY WESTERN ARKANSAS. SUNDAY WILL AGAIN
BE A SEVERE WEATHER DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL MAKE FLOODING
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ANY WEEKEND PLANS NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS IS A POPULAR TIME FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVALS AND
THOSE EVENTS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 12:28 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOkfuskee47 min
May 7, 12:41 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSAOkfuskee94 min
May 7, 3:11 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOkmulgee34 min
May 7, 3:54 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAPittsburg51 min
May 7, 4:25 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMcIntosh, Muskogee50 min
May 7, 5:15 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACherokee, Haskell, Latimer, Muskogee45 min
May 7, 5:56 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAAdair, Cherokee, Haskell, LeFlore, Sequoyah49 min
May 7, 6:38 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAAdair52 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Flash Flood Watches in Arkansas, 2015Every flash flood watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.