Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AIR-MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE BEHIND DEPARTING MCS FROM
THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT/MAJOR FLOODING ONGOING AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION SPREADS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM THE SOUTH WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG APPROACHING FRONT.

MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT...HOWEVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LIMITED THREAT
FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER AREAL FLOODING AND
ESPECIALLY RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED MON/TUE BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING BACK ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
WILL BE ADDED TO TORNADO WATCH 157...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
900 PM. THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 154 WILL BE CANCELED
SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
518 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND WILL POSE A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORMING ALONG A COLD
FRONT ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WILL BE LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WORST FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FULLY MOVES INTO THAT PART OF THE REGION.
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH. AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MCALESTER               34.93N 95.77W
05/10/2015                   PITTSBURG          OK   PUBLIC

            EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE FROM THUNDERSTORM WINDS. SOCIAL
            MEDIA REPORT WITH PICTURES.

&&

SFP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

OKZ073-102145-
PITTSBURG OK-
410 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 410 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND TO 24 MILES SOUTH OF
ASHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...KIOWA...PITTSBURG...ASHLAND...
SAVANNA...HAYWOOD AND ARPELAR.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3460 9589 3468 9589 3468 9609 3468 9610
      3486 9610 3488 9609 3516 9582 3459 9581
      3458 9582 3459 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 224DEG 36KT 3472 9615 3444 9617

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
731 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S WILBURTON           34.83N 95.31W
05/10/2015                   LATIMER            OK   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGE. LARGE LIMBS BROKEN. NEAR INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 1 AND HIGHWAY 2.

0938 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WILBURTON               34.92N 95.31W
05/10/2015                   LATIMER            OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND SOME POWER LINES DOWNED IN WILBURTON.
            AT LEAST ONE POWER POLE WAS LEANING SIGNIFICANTLY.

0945 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W KINTA               35.12N 95.26W
05/10/2015                   HASKELL            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN.

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EUFAULA                 35.29N 95.58W
05/10/2015                   MCINTOSH           OK   PUBLIC

            RECREATIONAL AREA FLOODED IN EUFAULA. SOCIAL MEDIA. IMAGE
            SHOWED BASEBALL FIELD AND SURROUNDING AREA UNDER UP TO A
            FOOT OF WATER.

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MULBERRY                35.50N 94.05W
05/10/2015                   CRAWFORD           AR   PUBLIC

            MULBERRY RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS. NEAR SILVER BRIDGE. VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

0710 PM     HAIL             6 W OCTAVIA             34.53N 94.81W
05/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
744 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TORNADO          S DAMON                 34.85N 95.31W
05/10/2015                   LATIMER            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED TORNADO DAMAGE CROSSING HIGHWAY 2...NEAR
            INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 1...SOUTH OF DAMON. LOCATION
            ESTIMATED. LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN. WIDTH OF DAMAGE ABOUT
            50 YARDS AT THE HIGHWAY.

&&

SAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
828 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

OKZ049-053-073-075-110215-
CHOCTAW OK-LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
828 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...SOUTHERN PITTSBURG...WESTERN PUSHMATAHA
     AND SOUTHWESTERN LATIMER

AT 828 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURG TO 13 MILES WEST OF
MOYERS TO 30 MILES WEST OF KELLOND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...HIGGINS...
GOWEN...KIOWA...PITTSBURG...BLANCO...HARTSHORNE...HAILEYVILLE...
ANTLERS...CLAYTON...MOYERS...FINLEY...KOSOMA...SNOW...STANLEY...
KELLOND...EUBANKS...DUNBAR...SARDIS AND CLAYTON LAKE STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3414 9596 3415 9598 3416 9598 3417 9578
      3450 9579 3451 9568 3459 9568 3459 9588
      3467 9589 3468 9596 3471 9596 3495 9536
      3454 9529 3419 9556 3410 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 246DEG 40KT 3466 9585 3438 9584
          3413 9609