Flash Flood Warning 125, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
936 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Added Creek and Washington counties to the freezing rain advisory
for tonight based on current observations and hi res model sfc
temp forecast for the next several hours.

Temporary lull in precip occurring in parts of eastern OK...
however radar trends showing expanding area of light/moderate
freezing rain from southwest into north central Oklahoma. Sfc
freezing line running from about Copan to Oilton to Chandler
right now per OK Mesonet. HRRR/RAP continue to show only a very
small deviation in its position overnight and even a small upward
trend in sfc temps prior to 12z. Given the expanding precip and
current/ expected temperature trends...expect at least light ice
accum in many areas west of the Tulsa metro.

Other issue will be flooding potential overnight as much of the
area has seen over 3 inches of rain in the past two days...with a
max of over 8 inches in Choctaw Co. Any additional rain will
likely cause some issues as a result. Flash Flood Watch will
continue for much of southeast OK and western AR through Sat
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
THE TEMPERATURE AT KBVO IS NEAR FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
IT TO FALL TONIGHT AND EVEN COULD RISE A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT...
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
COULD OCCUR THERE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR TONIGHT
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will continue all headlines as is with this forecast package. The
flash flood watch in the north will expire at 7 pm, with
additional rainfall rates after that time not expected to be
sufficient to result in flash flooding. Higher rainfall rates to
the south support the continuation of the flash flood watch there
through Saturday.

The winter weather headlines are more problematic as even one
additional degree of cooling will result in more significant
winter weather impacts northwest of Tulsa. Current trends suggest
temperatures should change little overnight, and perhaps even rise
a degree in some places by morning. Thus, will keep the freezing
rain advisory where it is now, but as mentioned even a one degree
drop will require expansion to the southeast.

A very slow modification of the shallow cold air will take place
over the next 48 hours, with the NAM12 continuing to be followed
for temperature guidance during this time period. Rain chances
will continue through the weekend and perhaps into Monday as the
upper low finally lifts out into the central Plains. Rainfall
coverage and intensity should lessen though by the latter half of
the weekend.

Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail during the
middle to latter part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ049-053-
     068>076.

     Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ056>058-
     060>067.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for OKZ054.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  37  36  40 / 100 100  60  40
FSM   43  46  45  49 / 100 100  70  70
MLC   36  40  38  42 / 100 100  70  60
BVO   32  37  36  39 / 100  90  50  30
FYV   38  42  39  46 / 100 100  60  60
BYV   38  40  38  44 / 100 100  60  60
MKO   35  42  39  43 / 100 100  60  50
MIO   35  38  37  42 /  90  90  50  40
F10   33  37  36  40 / 100 100  60  50
HHW   40  43  41  45 / 100 100  80  70

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ049-053-
     068>076.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for OKZ054-055-
     059-064.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
921 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281115-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
921 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

WINTER WEATHER.
	ICE ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...LIMITED.
 AREA...WEST OF A COPAN TO BRISTOW LINE.
 ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
SINCE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MANY STREAMS WILL BE
BANKFULL OR OVERFLOWING AND MANY RIVERS WILL FLOOD AS WELL DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
TO THE WEST OF THE TULSA AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED RISK OF ICE ACCUMULATION...PRIMARILY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL THREAT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA SHOULD RISE A
LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE
LARGER RIVERS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
743 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW HAILEYVILLE        34.83N 95.61W
11/27/2015                   PITTSBURG          OK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 63 CLOSED BETWEEN HAILEYVILLE AND KIOWA.

&&

JDS