Flash Flood Warning 121, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WHOLESALE CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD  OF FORECAST
WITH ACTIVE MCS SPINNING THROUGH FORECAST AREA.
RAISED POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND LOWERED MAX
TEMP. MORE REFINEMENT LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 16-18Z. ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 09Z) FOR KBVO/KTUL/KRVS
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHWEST AR TAF SITES. A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING SHOWING MODEST SIGNS OF WEAKENING...WITH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY INDICATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO PUSH
SLIGHTLY FARTHER AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AND A
GENERAL WARMING TREND IN SATELLITE CLOUD TOPS. THIS WEAKENING IS
COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE
COMPLEX /ESPECIALLY THE PORTION NORTH OF THE APEX NEAR THE HIGHWAY
412 CORRIDOR/ WOULD EITHER MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE
WEAKENING WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS.

WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...BUT A SMALL CHANCE WOULD EXIST SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH
ANY DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WILL
PREVAIL FOR A FEW DAYS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME...BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  82  63 /  80  60  30  20
FSM   87  74  88  69 /  80  10  40  30
MLC   91  75  89  68 /  80  20  40  30
BVO   88  69  81  59 /  80  70  20  10
FYV   82  71  82  61 /  80  20  50  20
BYV   82  70  81  60 /  70  30  50  10
MKO   88  73  84  65 /  80  30  40  30
MIO   85  70  80  58 /  80  70  40  10
F10   90  73  84  65 /  80  40  40  30
HHW   92  74  92  72 /  20  10  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
453 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
453 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL RISK LATE TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL
POSE A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING.
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AS WELL.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH COOL MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

OKZ054>056-059>061-064-220645-
NOWATA OK-CREEK OK-TULSA OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-OSAGE OK-
WASHINGTON OK-
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA...
WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN TULSA...SOUTHEASTERN
PAWNEE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 145
AM CDT...

AT 1253 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OKESA TO 6 MILES NORTH
OF WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF DRUMRIGHT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN TULSA...BARTLESVILLE...SAND SPRINGS...SKIATOOK...
COLLINSVILLE...MANNFORD...BARNSDALL...SPERRY...OILTON...RAMONA...
OCHELATA...DELAWARE...AVANT...WESTPORT...VERA...TERLTON...WALNUT
CREEK STATE PARK...OKESA...KEYSTONE STATE PARK AND TALLANT.

LAT...LON 3684 9561 3643 9578 3601 9627 3601 9662
      3609 9662 3633 9632 3675 9614
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 255DEG 30KT 3670 9610 3635 9626 3604 9667

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
203 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

OKZ057-061-062-220745-
CRAIG OK-MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-
203 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...CENTRAL
ROGERS AND MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 202 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHELSEA TO 3 MILES WEST OF TIAWAH TO NEAR CATOOSA...AND MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAREMORE...PRYOR...PRYOR CREEK...CHOUTEAU...CHELSEA...INOLA...LOCUST
GROVE...SALINA...LANGLEY...ADAIR...KETCHUM...SPAVINAW...FOYIL...
DISNEY...BIG CABIN...PENSACOLA...HOOT OWL...TIAWAH...CHEROKEE STATE
PARK AND SPAVINAW STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3625 9506 3609 9535 3613 9557 3614 9559
      3613 9559 3614 9561 3616 9562 3616 9575
      3623 9569 3655 9549 3659 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0702Z 264DEG 28KT 3650 9546 3624 9561 3621 9572

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

OKZ059-220915-
PAWNEE OK-
329 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY UNTIL
415 AM CDT...

AT 329 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES EAST OF MORRISON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAWNEE...JENNINGS...HALLETT...BLACKBURN...MARAMEC AND SKEDEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 9697 3639 9660 3638 9660 3637 9658
      3616 9656 3616 9682 3624 9682 3625 9684
      3625 9692 3633 9693 3633 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0829Z 263DEG 23KT 3630 9693