Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
932 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS IS VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN
WIND SHEAR CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING SEVERE UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...THE
ACTIVITY IN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD FAR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND CONSIDERABLE WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE THAT RESIDES OVER THE AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT THIS DAILY
POTENTIAL. LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

69

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
342 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ARZ002-020915-
CARROLL AR-
342 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARROLL AND NORTHERN MADISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 341 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
URBANETTE TO NEAR GRANDVIEW TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EUREKA SPRINGS...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...GREEN FOREST...URBANETTE...RUDD...
GRANDVIEW...RULE...CARROLLTON...OSAGE...BLUE EYE...OAK HILL...
CABANAL...DELMAR...DRYFORK...CONNOR...PLEASANT RIDGE...DENVER...COIN
AND METALTON.

LAT...LON 3613 9355 3615 9355 3616 9358 3619 9358
      3619 9361 3620 9362 3626 9362 3627 9364
      3628 9363 3628 9366 3630 9366 3630 9377
      3647 9372 3650 9364 3650 9330 3612 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0841Z 296DEG 30KT 3645 9345 3645 9365 3632 9369