Excessive Heat Warning 5, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT. VERY HOT. LITTLE CHANGE WITH MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM NEAR GAGE TO STILLWATER TO OKMULGEE
AND THEN DOWN INTO THE OUACHITAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING. SOME ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TODAY AND TOMORROW...WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS SHOW SOME WARMING FOR TODAY. THUS...THE COMBINATION OF THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE HEAT
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES TO WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EVEN FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...THUS DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS TODAY. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS
NEEDED FOR TOMORROW AS A RESULT...THOUGH AN ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A DECENT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND SOME RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW HOWEVER.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  79 101  78 /  10   0   0   0
FSM  100  78 101  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC  102  78 102  77 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   96  74 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   94  74  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   92  73  96  75 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   98  76 100  76 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  75  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
F10  100  77 100  77 /  10   0   0   0
HHW  102  78 102  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ058-063-069.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ058-063-069.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-010.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-010.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...21

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