Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STORMS OVER NW MO HAVE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HASN'T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ON THE WANE OVER THE
AREA.  SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS
SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS
HOUR.

FOR TODAY...STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.  WITH BOTH THE ONGOING COLD POOL AND
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT...WOULD ANTICIPATE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO SET
UP IN A E/W OR NW/SE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY.  CAP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...WITH HRRR
BREAKING OUT SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCOMING LIFT...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG AND DEEP THE BOUNDARY IS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.  PROBABILITIES ARE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP STARTING 18Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT BACK INTO NORTHERN MO / EASTERN NE...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIFTED POPS
MORE NORTH LATER IN THE EVENING AND KEPT THEM THERE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 09-12Z GIVEN WAVE COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THE BULK OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THAT WAVE
WILL RESIDE BEYOND THE INITIAL 2 PERIODS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THINK IT WILL STAY IN THE 80S UP NORTH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING
PRETTY WARM IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE WANE LATE IN THE DAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD INSOLATION.  MIDDLE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF I70 SEEM
LIKELY AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND COULD BE TOO COOL SOUTH IF RAIN
DOESN'T START UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BY TOMORROW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM COMPLEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN KS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE COVERAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND. IN FACT,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM THE NAM THAT THE COMPLEX WILL LOSE
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE COLD POOL
DRIVEN AND WEAKENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD ACTUALLY DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS. THE 850 MB
TRANSPORT VECTORS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL AID IN
THE PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM THIS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN KS. FOR NOW THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY GIVEN THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM AND WESTERN TX THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR OUR AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR THIS FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS
FORM IN PEAK HEATING ALONG A FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL START A GROUP WITH THAT. ANTICIPATE WILL
SEE A BREAK LATER IN THE EVENING AND NEXT ISSUANCE CAN LIKELY TAKE
OUT...NEEDING ADDITIONAL POPS FOR LATER TIMES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
500 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-041000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
500 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO GARNETT. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

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