Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MCV THAT HELPED PROVIDE ASCENT FOR THE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO IL. THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA ALONG THE NE BORDER PICKED UP BETWEEN 2
TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH RESULTED IN SOME FLASH FLOODING
BETWEEN 6 AM-8AM. A SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WERE BEGIN TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH MID 70 DEWPOINTS.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. I'LL PROBABLY JUST GO
WITH 14 POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH ASCENT FRONT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. I EXPECT AN
MCS/COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KS DURING THE
MID EVENING HOURS AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THERE'S STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THE MCS WILL FORM AND TRACK. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL BETWEEN 03Z-12Z THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SHOWS THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KS
AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
WRF SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE
12Z NAM SHOWS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WEAKENING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ONCE IT REACHES CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...AND THE CHANCE OF AN MCS OR COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...I HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THROUGH 11
AM MONDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS GENERALLY ALONG A MINNEAPOLIS TO
MANHATTAN...TO HOYT...TO OKALOOSA LINE. COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH MAY
HAVE TO BE ADDED ON THIS EVENING IF THE MCS DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
ENVIRONMENT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS WILL CONSIST OF 2000-3000 MUCAPE ALONG WITH 0-6KM
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KTS. THEREFORE SOME OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS IN A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE.
IF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPS THEN THERE MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANY MCS OR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FORECAST PWATS IN
THE 1.9-2.25 INCH RANGE.

MONDAY...THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NE AND EASTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ON A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER DUE TO
THE MORNING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE NE BORDER TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT
PUSHES DOWN TO NEAR KS/OK BORDER BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. COULD
BE A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL MONDAY EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW
COMBINES WITH ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER THE THERMAL BOUNDARY TO GIVE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL KS AND
AREAS SOUTH. ON TUESDAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WEAK WAVE AND
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AFFECTS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY
THE MODELS TO EDGE NORTHWARD...BEST LIFT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS AND HAVE CONFINED HIGHEST POPS AND LARGER QPF
TO OUR EAST CENTRAL KS COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF I70.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATE WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL ON AND
OFF CHANCES OF PRECIP. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP INTO THE REGION
AS WELL A COUPLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WORKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND OVER NORTHEASTERN KS. GENERALLY HAVE POPS DECREASING
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF FAIRLY SHARPLY BY
EVENING WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT NARROW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOR FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING A BROADER MID LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PRECIP ON SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER AREAS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER. THE LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER A BIT AT THIS POINT AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT AN
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THAT A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE FORCED INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROADER TROUGH OF THE WESTERLIES MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EITHER WAY, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND MORNING THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. WITH A
SITUATION THAT LOOKS TO LEAVE SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES IN PLAY
OVER THE REGION, SUNDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS A
WEAK WAVE TURNS THE RIDGE AND INSTABILITY SETS UP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.

HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KS.
LOWS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

TIMING OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS BEGIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WITH RAIN. MHK HAVE STARTED AROUND 2AM WITH TEMPO GROUP
STARTING A FEW HOURS LATER AS POSSIBLE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN.
DOES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT IN THE MID TO LATER MORNING HOURS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...PHILLIPS/DRAKE
AVIATION...67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
410 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70 IN A LINE FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO HOLTON AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSZ037-054-058-059-200500-
LYON-ANDERSON-COFFEY-MORRIS-
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS...
SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON...COFFEY AND LYON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT...

AT 1115 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM COUNCIL GROVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH BURLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EMPORIA...BURLINGTON...COUNCIL GROVE...LEBO...AMERICUS...OLPE...NEW
STRAWN...HARTFORD...GRIDLEY...NEOSHO RAPIDS...WESTPHALIA...WILSEY...
BUSHONG...DUNLAP...LE ROY...COUNCIL GROVE LAKE...JOHN REDMOND
RESERVOIR AND BURDICK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 150.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 140.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9596 3817 9636 3852 9635 3852 9688
      3855 9692 3880 9653 3850 9596 3843 9595
      3843 9583 3819 9537 3804 9550 3804 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 239DEG 27KT 3811 9582