Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

Another complicated short-term forecast is in place for today as
conditions will continue to be strongly influenced by mesoscale and
lingering storm-scale features.

A mid-level ridge stretched across the central U.S. with models
showing it remaining anchored over this region through the
short-term period. Water vapor imagery showed a few embedded
shortwaves that had developed along the northern edge of the ridge
axis that was helping to support the development of scattered
thunderstorms across Nebraska and far northern Kansas early this
morning. Short-range models show this early morning activity near
the KS/NE border to continue to lift just north of the border
through around sunrise before a shift in the winds aloft cause the
storms to shift southeastward and track across northeast and into
east central Kansas through mid to late morning. These morning
storms should generally remain below severe criteria as inhibition
remains in place and effective shear steadily weakens to 25-30kts,
however cannot rule out some marginally-severe hail or gusty winds
from any stronger storms. Most of the short-range models show these
morning storms weakening and diminishing by late morning/early
afternoon with a few hours of mostly dry conditions during the
afternoon hours. However, it is worth noting that both the Hi-Res
ARW/NMM are showing a few isolated storms developing during the
early/mid afternoon hours, likely initiating off of a lingering
outflow boundary, so this potential will need to be monitored
closely. Much like yesterday, the morning cloud cover should keep
temperatures fairly steady initially, but if we're able to get some
breaks in the cloud cover during the early/mid afternoon hours
(which several models are suggesting), then it shouldn't take long
for temperatures to reach into the low/mid 80s across much of the
area as the southerly low-level jet remains in place over the
region, helping to support warm-air advection into the region.  The
coolest conditions will likely be in far northeast Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border where cloud cover may linger.

Concerns then shift to later this afternoon and this evening for
additional thunderstorm development and the potential for some
strong to severe storms. The surface low pressure west of the
forecast area looks to remain in place with the associated frontal
boundary remaining fairly stationary across western Kansas into
central Nebraska. This boundary, as well as any lingering outflow
boundaries, should be the focus for additional thunderstorm
initiation as early as late this afternoon and into this evening
across north central and far northern Kansas. Whether these storms
will remain somewhat anchored along these boundaries and stay mainly
focused across northern Kansas or if these storms will morph into a
complex of storms that tracks southeastward across the CWA is still
uncertain. However, atmospheric conditions across the northern half
of the CWA should be conducive to the development of strong to
severe storms as inhibition weakens across the area by late
afternoon/early evening, MUCAPE values reach upwards of 3000-4000
J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear values reach upwards of 30-35kts. The
low-level jet quickly increases across central Kansas late afternoon
through the evening hours with a zone of increased 0-1km helicity
values and bulk shear values across far north central and far
northeast Kansas, so cannot rule out the potential for an isolated
tornado across that region. Otherwise, main threats would be large
hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain. Inhibition looks to
build back in during the mid to late evening hours, so storms may
become more elevated at that time. With the cloud cover in place,
low temperatures should only drop into the mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

Morning convection Friday will likely lay out some boundaries across
northeast Kansas. These mesoscale boundaries will be a focus for
additional scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon
and evening hours. Atmosphere is forecast to be unstable with CAPE
in the 3000 J/kg to 4000 J/kg range in the afternoon and evening
with no inhibition. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
with high precipitable water in the column and increasing theta-e
with the strengthening of the low level jet Friday night. Upper
level ridge over the Central Plains will keep northern Kansas on the
south edge of the westerlies and models continue to be consistent
with flattening the ridge Saturday night as an upper level trough
moves across the northern and Central Plains. The above feature will
move a front into northern Kansas on Sunday. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and night,
especially north of Interstate 70 where instability and shear will
be supportive of severe storms. Large hail and damaging winds along
be the main hazards. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a
concern Saturday night and again on Sunday. The front is still
forecast to move through the forecast area on Monday then stall over
southern Kansas Monday night before lifting northward again by
Wednesday which will keep some small chances of precipitation in the
forecast in the Monday to Wednesday period. Highs will generally be
in the 80s with lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

For the 12z TAFs, expect scattered storms to track near the TAF
sites this morning with a brief period of MVFR cigs possible.
Conditions should be dry this afternoon, but cannot rule out the
potential for some isolated storms in the area. There is a chance
that the evening convection may track southeast toward the TAF sites
late tonight into the overnight hours, however confidence is low in
the timing and occurrence of any storms so only have a mention of
VCTS at this time. Winds through the period will generally be out of
the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038>040.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
441 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
441 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED EARLY MORNING STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AROUND SUNRISE AND TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SEVERE
LIMITS...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH 10 AM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. MANY OF THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE
DRIVEN BY STORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1027 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N HANOVER             39.99N 96.87W
06/04/2015  M1.60 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THURSDAY MORNING RAINFALL TOTAL AND STILL RAINING.

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1039 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW ROBINSON          39.80N 95.45W
06/04/2015  M4.75 INCH       BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

BDRAKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1039 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ024-026-041630-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
1039 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1130 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY
RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE POTAWATOMI
RESERVATION...MAYETTA...HOYT...DENISON...OZAWKIE...VALLEY FALLS AND
NORTONVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9533 3920 9559 3922 9559 3922 9604
      3939 9604 3943 9556 3942 9556 3942 9532
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 267DEG 29KT 3928 9593

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1049 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW HIAWATHA          39.86N 95.55W
06/04/2015  M2.50 INCH       BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THURSDAY MORNING RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 6AM.

&&

BDRAKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1059 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ021-022-041645-
CLAY-RILEY-
1059 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY AND NORTHERN
CLAY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN RILEY AND NORTHERN CLAY COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CLAY CENTER...GREEN AND
RANDOLPH.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 9667 3948 9668 3946 9669 3946 9671
      3945 9672 3943 9671 3942 9673 3942 9671
      3940 9672 3937 9669 3934 9730 3952 9733
      3957 9700 3957 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 263DEG 25KT 3945 9719

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ022-023-038-041715-
POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-WABAUNSEE-
1149 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN RILEY...POTTAWATOMIE AND
NORTH CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN RILEY...POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTH
CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE NORTHERN MANHATTAN...BLAINE...WESTMORELAND...
WHEATON...WAMEGO...ST. GEORGE AND LOUISVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3952 9617 3929 9621 3911 9629 3923 9681
      3957 9673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 286DEG 29KT 3953 9662 3925 9671